The arms aid promised by the United States could have saved the Ukrainian front from a complete collapse, according to expert John Helin.
12:50•Updated 13:06
Russia’s plan for the continuation of the war in Ukraine is beginning to be revealed to experts. Russia seems to be preparing a two-pronged attack that would leave Ukrainian forces blocked in the center of the front.
Russian troops have penetrated the small town of Otšeretyne in recent days and are now expanding their intrusion in all directions.
The main responsibility for the attack lies with the motorized infantry units of the Russian Central Military District, says ‘s military expert Marko Eklund.
The main attack seems to be heading northwest towards the Pokrovski-Kostjantynivka highway. The road is one of the most important supply routes in the Donetsk region, says an expert following the war John Helin.
The second attack direction goes west from Otsheretyne towards Pokrovski, which is the most important supply center in the area.
At the same time, Russia is gathering troops in the area of the city of Chasiv Yar. John Helin estimates that Russia will launch a major offensive to take the city within a week. From Chasiv Jar, the attack would continue towards Kostjantynivka.
Ukraine’s defense lines incomplete
Russia may try to cut off the highway to the northeast of Pokrovsk, but it is enough for it to be able to prevent the use of the road with its gunfire, Helin says. In this case, the Ukrainian troops further east, in Toretsk and New York region, will be practically blocked.
The assessment that the Russians are trying a big pincer movement seems logical, says Marko Eklund.
The big question is how well the Ukrainian forces are able to repel the Russian advance. Ukraine has prepared defensive lines between Ocheretynen and the highway, but they are very incomplete.
– They exist, but unfinished. It lacks, for example, mass graves. They are also not covered, i.e. they are in the sky, so they are exposed to the threat of drones, Helin describes.
The hastily dug trenches can be seen in satellite images.
According to Helin, it is difficult to assess how quickly Russia aims to achieve its blockade goal.
– This can be a quick operation or take a whole year. It depends on how Ukraine is able to truly prevent Russian attacks.
In Otsheretyne, Russia achieved a local breakthrough, which allowed it to advance a couple of kilometers in an instant.
The reason for this was apparently more a mistake in the replacement of Ukrainian forces than Russian superiority.
US aid essential
Helin does not believe that Russia is capable of large breakthroughs in war, several kilometers long.
The possibility of the front collapsing existed before the United States decided on its large aid package for Ukraine, says Helin.
Although aid has apparently not yet arrived at the front, the situation in Ukraine is a little easier. It now dares to use, for example, its artillery ammunition stores more boldly, when replenishment is on the way.
Still, Helin urges to be prepared for the fact that Ukraine will constantly have to back down. Although Ukraine is getting new material, Russia still has manpower and firepower.
– Ukraine has to transfer reserves from other front blocks. This reveals how difficult the situation is.
Along with Otseretynen, Russia also attacks elsewhere. Russia attacks elsewhere than in Otsheretyne.
According to Eklund, the Russian 90th Panzer Division and the motorized infantry brigade brought from Kaliningrad are advancing south of Otsheretyne towards Pokrovsky. In addition, there are militia forces of the former “Donetsk People’s Republic” in the area, which now form the 1st Army of the Southern Military District of Russia.
Further north, in the Luhansk region, Russia has also made some progress because Ukraine has had to withdraw troops from there, John Helin says.