As the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine intensifies as the days go by, one country is finding it more difficult than others to show its firmness within the Western camp: Germany. Admittedly, Olaf Scholz acknowledged, on January 18, that such a “military intervention” would have “a high cost”, in explicit reference to sanctions targeting Nord Stream 2, one of the rare means of pressure available to the Europeans. But these remarks are largely attenuated by others: the Social Democratic Chancellor repeated, in December, that the gas pipeline passing through the Baltic Sea, destined to play a crucial role in the energy supply of his country, should be considered as “a purely private economic project”. Implied: to be exempted from the basket of sanctions. More recently, statements by a senior German officer have outraged Kiev. By calling the idea that Russia could invade Ukraine “inept” and saying that Vladimir Putin “probably deserves” respect, the head of the German Navy sparked an outcry, to the point that the latter was dismissed from office on Saturday evening.
The oscillations of Olaf Scholz reflect just as much those of German society. No offense to the United States, the Kremlin’s foreign policy benefits from a certain indulgence across the Rhine. An ambiguity which is expressed in particular in the ranks of the Social Democrats (SPD), while one of them, the former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, chairs the company Nord Stream 2. “I can mentally understand the fact that the Russians feel threatened,” said Rolf Mützenich, the leader of the SPD parliamentary group in the Bundestag, referring to the fact that NATO’s military spending is “much higher than that of Russia”. He also denounced “reciprocal threats” concerning the Ukrainian crisis, while Kiev does not intend to invade anyone.
He is not the only one on this line. Part of the population, mainly in the former communist GDR, feels closer to Russia than to the United States. Only 34% of East Germans think the economic sanctions imposed on Russia since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 are correct, compared to 68% of West Germans, said a study by the Forsa Institute, last summer. And half of them favor a closer relationship with Russia.
“Ostpolitik” and guilt
This openness towards Moscow is explained by the attachment to “Ostpolitik”, the rapprochement with the East initiated by Chancellor Willy Brandt in the 1970s. “It is perceived as one of the reasons of the collapse of the communist bloc and German unity, recalls Hans Stark, adviser for Franco-German relations at IFRI. Change through rapprochement has also been the leitmotif of foreign policy vis-à-vis of China and Russia over the past twenty years, with the idea that their democratization would result from economic interdependence with the West.
The guilt linked to the Second World War also explains Germany’s sometimes conciliatory tone towards Moscow. The Nazi regime was responsible for 25 million Soviet deaths, historians estimate. “The Russians, without any complex, have always tried to play on the bad German conscience,” notes Jean-Maurice Ripert, French ambassador to Russia from 2013 to 2017. “It’s a rope that still works very well with the older generation, less with the new,” says Stefan Meister of the think tank German Council for Foreign Relations (DGAP).
A sign indicating the direction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline terminal, in Lubmin in northeastern Germany, in 2020.
afp.com/Odd ANDERSEN
For the researcher, the lack of firmness of Berlin, these last years, with regard to Russia, had harmful consequences. “Contrary to what Olaf Scholz may have said, Nord Stream 2 is indeed a geopolitical project, which would allow Russia to do without gas pipelines in Ukraine to deliver its gas to Europe, he recalls. completion of its construction is all the more a success for the Kremlin as it has divided Europeans and tainted the transatlantic relationship.” Donald Trump like Joe Biden criticized his achievement, deemed too advantageous for Vladimir Putin.
However, the Russian maneuvers on the Ukrainian border now tend to unify the West. In Berlin, Thursday evening, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Annalena Baerbock, alongside her French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian and the American Secretary of State Antony Blinken, thus assured that they would not hesitate to impose sanctions. unprecedented, even if reprisals were to have “economic consequences” for Europe. Germany has long looked to Russia as a partner. She sees her more and more as an adversary.
Clement Daniez