It closely follows the evolution of the war started more than fourteen months ago by Vladimir Putin. Andriy Zagorodnyuk is one of the best connoisseurs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces after serving as Volodymyr Zelensky’s Defense Minister from 2019 to 2020. Now head of the Center for Defense Strategies (CDS), a Ukrainian think tank and associate researcher at the Atlantic Council in Washington, he recently took part in the geopolitical meetings of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. He wants to be confident about the Ukrainian counter-offensive expected for this spring. “We have a very strong force that will allow us to achieve significant gains,” he said from kyiv. Interview.
L’Express: Can the telephone conversation between Xi Jinping and Volodymyr Zelensky on April 26 be useful in this conflict?
Andriy Zagorodnyuk: We can only wish it. Currently, China still largely subscribes to the Russian narrative around this war. For example, the idea that Ukraine’s rapprochement with NATO constituted a risk for Russia and justified aggression on its part. However, it is totally implausible to imagine that Ukraine could have intended to attack Russia. It was never considered. The decisions we have made to strengthen our defense and our military partnerships have historically started in reaction to aggressive Russian actions, especially after 2014. I doubt that this call between Xi Jinping and Volodymyr Zelensky will be enough to change everything, nevertheless we can hope that he can contribute to changing Beijing’s vision of this conflict, and will open the way to a deepening of relations between our two countries. Ultimately, this could also reduce the risk that China will support Russia militarily by sending it weapons.
Andriy Zagorodnyuk, then Minister of Defense of Ukraine, and his then American counterpart, Mark Esper (left), before a meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels on February 13, 2020.
© / AFP
The Chinese president called for negotiations to end the war. Do you think it is possible to negotiate with Putin?
In theory, yes. But in practice, we see that Putin is not interested in real talks. Moreover, he destroyed any room for negotiation by forcibly annexing four Ukrainian regions last September. Today, the inhabitants of the occupied territories are living a real hell: human rights violations are massive, as are the cases of torture. And tens of thousands of Ukrainian children have been abducted to be sent to new families in Russia.
It is totally unthinkable for Ukraine to accept this situation and abandon them to their fate. And even if we did, it wouldn’t stop the war. It is clear that the Russians want to continue their expansion to go as far as possible. Putin’s regime is absolutely determined to destroy our country, even if it means killing tens of thousands of people. On our side, we are ready to discuss. No one is happy about this war. The population, the political elites, the economic circles, all want the war to end as soon as possible. But Russia must first leave our territory, return our children to us and free the Ukrainian prisoners of war.
Regarding the situation on the front, the winter offensive led by Russian forces resulted in few gains and many losses. What is your analysis of the situation?
Russia did try to launch an offensive, but it failed. Now she is saving her forces to prepare for our counter-offensive. We see very clearly the limits of the Russian army, which relies largely on unskilled forces. Their current doctrine, especially in Bakhmout, is simple: send as many soldiers as possible to the assault. If a colossal number of them die, some still end up arriving on our positions. This way of treating their soldiers is particularly inhuman, and we could not conceive of doing the same with our own troops. Still, the fighting is difficult for our forces, because they find themselves confronted by many waves of men arriving from all directions.
What is the Russians’ short-term objective?
Initially, the Russian objective is to capture the cities of Bakhmout, Avdiïvka and Vouhledar, before attempting to sink further. But despite considerable losses, I don’t think they will succeed. Their medium-term objective would then be to reach the borders of the Donetsk region. If they succeeded, they would celebrate it as a “great victory” and could take a break from their offensive, or even claim that their “special operation”, as they call it, is over. But we all know that would only be temporary. Their ultimate goal is obviously not limited to the Donbass: they want all of Ukraine. This is why we are preparing for the counter-offensive, to expel the occupier from as much territory as possible.
Are you confident in Ukraine’s ability to make significant gains in their spring counter-offensive?
Yes, we have a very important force that will allow us to obtain significant gains. We may not recover all of Ukraine at once, but it will be possible for us to reconquer large parts of our territory. I don’t think anyone knows exactly where the counter-offensive will take place, but the decision should be made soon. A number of scenarios have been planned and one of them will be implemented when the time is right. The equipment we have received, especially the Western heavy tanks, will be useful to us. Additionally, the willingness of our allies to provide us with more gear will very much depend on how that gear is used.
A Ukrainian tank opens fire during a firing exercise in Zaporizhia, Ukraine, March 29, 2023.
© / Anadolu Agency via AFP
Pentagon leaks have revealed that Ukraine could very quickly run out of air defense…
For me, it’s in the top 3 of equipment we need the most. Especially since Russia is in the process of deploying a new type of missile, equivalent to the American JDAMs. These are bombs on which are added wings to make them hover, a thruster and a GPS. This kit only costs 20,000 euros. And it is a significant threat, because this device could equip thousands of old bombs that Russia still has in stock, and whose power is 10 to 20 times greater than that of Iranian Shahed drones, already capable of inflicting heavy damage. However, it is difficult to use expensive surface-to-air missiles against such cheap bombs. So we have to aim instead for the planes that fire them. It’s a big challenge for us.
What are the other priority equipment?
First, there is ammunition for artillery and battle tanks. We also need armored vehicles and anything useful for a counter-offensive. This is the priority. Expanding the list of our needs a bit, I will add reconnaissance drones and armed drones. One difficulty is that Russia has developed electronic capabilities that make these latest drones less useful than before. Finally, there are fighter jets. The problem is that I don’t see any solutions soon, because the United States refuses to give F-16s, the model that our government wants the most.
What can France do best to help Ukraine militarily?
It has fantastic technologies. The French Caesar is probably the best in the world in the category of self-propelled guns. We were able to realize this on the ground, because there are other weapons of the same type used in Ukraine. There is a lot of French equipment that could be supplied to Ukraine in terms of communication, optics and targeting. We will also see how the armored vehicles recently delivered [NDLR : des AMX-10 RC avec un canon de 105 mm] they behave. In general, the French equipment works very well.
The AMX-10 RC, whose production started in the 1980s, are light tanks weighing almost 25 tons with 105 mm guns, mounted on wheels and not on tracks.
© / FRANCOIS NASCIMBENI / AFP
How is Emmanuel Macron perceived in kyiv?
When he called Putin, people were rather skeptical, because they thought it would not yield any results. At the same time, if we don’t try, we cannot be sure. He also said that Putin should not be humiliated. But Putin cannot lose without being humiliated at the same time. However, Macron has recently started talking about victory for Ukraine, as few other leaders have. This is courageous, as many fear that a Russian defeat will lead to an uncontrollable situation. But, in reality, if Putin does not lose, we will end up with an endless war.
Do you think Ukraine can regain control of Crimea?
Yes it is possible, but it will not be easy. It can only be seriously considered when the other Ukrainian territories have been liberated. The Russian army must also lose its combat capabilities. If it concentrates its means in Crimea – and it still has hundreds of thousands of soldiers – the scenario of a release will be very difficult. However, Crimea is less well protected than many think. Of the hundred Black Sea Fleet ships that Russia is stationed there, barely twenty have strike capabilities. The most recent date back to the 1980s: they are old systems, which explains why they could have been attacked by drones.
To neutralize this fleet, it is not necessary to sink it entirely. All you have to do is damage these ships enough to put them out of service for a while. The same goes for airplanes. They can be prevented from taking off and landing on the peninsula by hitting airfields. It wouldn’t be opportunism. By occupying the Crimea, the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, the Russians have all of southern Ukraine within range and can block trade ships. Until the Crimea issue is resolved, militarily or diplomatically, the situation will not be stabilized north of the Black Sea, which will fuel the global food crisis.