Ukraine has begun to engage German Leopard 2 tanks and French AMX-10 RC “light tanks” on the front, video footage taken since June 4 by drones has revealed. These are the most valuable and lethal armored vehicles provided since the beginning of the year by its Western supporters – who have accompanied these deliveries of advanced equipment with accelerated training. So many signs showing that kyiv seems to have begun its long-awaited counter-offensive.
For the Ukrainians, the hour of truth has come. “They were on the defensive, they rearmed, retrained and are at a turning point, says a French military source. They are playing their all: if it passes, they are in a strong position for the future, otherwise , they know it’s tense…” Their objective is clear: to recapture as many occupied territories as possible until the lack of means, or the rains and mud, force them to stop the effort.
“We are reaching a high point on the strategic level, as shown by the fact that the war is spilling over into Russian territory,” continues the officer. The war changes scale with these fighters from Ukrainian territory – anti-Putin Russians – who carried out and succeeded in raids on the other side of the border, north of Kharkiv, managing to temporarily occupy positions, before fold. Taken by surprise, the Russian army had to send reinforcements which kyiv hopes will miss on the Donbass front.
Objective: to break through the Russian lines
In addition to these ground operations, there are increasingly frequent drone attacks on Russian territory, targeting energy infrastructure or military bases. Some have affected cities in border regions, such as Belgorod or Voronezh, but also a residential district of Moscow. In the heart of the capital, in early May, two drones even reached the Kremlin, above which they were destroyed. So many operations destined to disturb the Russian leaders.
It has also been weeks since Ukraine intensified its strikes in depth, on troop concentrations, ammunition depots and command centers, to disrupt the Russian front. An essential prerequisite for the conduct of operations to “breach” the lines of defense that the Russians have set up in the Donbass or in the Zaporijia region. Only a perfect coordination of their artillery, their engineers, their cavalry and their infantry will allow the Ukrainians to outclass their adversaries in certain previously identified weak points. And so to break through.
If they manage to break through the Russian lines as far as the Black Sea, the Ukrainians will have demonstrated to the West that their support is paying off and that they must continue it. The Russians would see the occupied zone divided in two and Crimea – where their precious naval base of Sevastopol is located – within range of rocket fire. It would find itself isolated: the peninsula would no longer be linked to Russia except by the Kerch bridge, already the victim of an attack in October. If talks resume with Moscow, kyiv’s position would therefore be strengthened.
Ukrainians know that the clock is not necessarily turning in their favor. Certainly, Joe Biden promises funds “as long as it takes”. But a Republican could enter the White House after the 2024 presidential election, with the desire to reduce or stop military support for Ukraine. “For them, what is happening is just a strategic distraction, their obsession is China,” said a military source. More than ever, the Ukrainians need a military success.