The position of Kiev, threatened by the Russian army, is getting worse every day. Still, the attacker still lacks the power to take over the capital, experts say.
Hanna Visala,
Jyrki Saarikoski
At the start of the fourth week of the Ukrainian war, the eyes are on Kiev. Even though the city is being struck and the fighting is getting ever closer, the conquest of the metropolis will not happen in an instant.
– It will take a long time to conquer the city. Russia does not have such forces in its current forces, says a military professor (evp.) Mika Hyytiäinen.
– If no surprises happen, add Hyytiäinen in ‘s telephone interview.
Hyytiäinen is a docent at the National Defense College, who also lectures on hybrid warfare and civil resistance at national defense courses.
“Knife straight to the heart”
– In retrospect, it is really strange that the President of Russia Vladimir Putin imagined being able to conquer the Ukrainian capital and overthrow the regime easily, says professor of military science Mats Berdal.
He works as a program director at the Department of Military Science at King’s College London.
– Russia may still live up to the hope that Kiev will surrender, but the people’s will to defend is strong and the city is preparing for an attack, says Berdal in a telephone interview.
Hyytiäinen also emphasizes that the conquest of the capital is essential in the war.
– If Kiev is besieged and surrendered, then Russia has won the war. It’s like a knife straight to the heart, Hyytiäinen says.
According to Berdal, Putin’s plan to repeat the model used in Crimea has gone wrong.
– He also hoped that the conquest of Ukraine would be light, with special forces, but badly underestimated the defense.
It will take time to draw up a new war plan
As the war drags on, planning and the transfer of new troops take time. However, Russia’s attack has not been exceptionally slow in relation to the size of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s long distances make maintenance difficult, and Russia’s army of about 150,000 men is not enough to give the attacker superiority.
– The Ukrainian professional army has a force of about 150,000 soldiers, says Hyytiäinen.
– When the conscripts also take into account the reserve, the total strength of the defender can be up to 400,000.
Since 2014, Ukraine has stepped up its own defense, such as anti-tank defense, recalls Professor Berdal.
Generals can pay with their lives
According to Mats Berdal, a professor of military science, it is difficult for Russian troops to move forward because effective air defense in Ukraine has prevented Russian air control.
The operation has also revealed shortcomings in the co-operation between the Russian army’s armed forces and troops.
Even the generals have been allowed to pay for it with their lives.
– High-ranking officers have died on the front line where they have tried to organize troops. This is exceptional, says Berdal.
Danger of war intensifying
Experts interviewed by estimate that Russia, which has been undermined in the war, may resort to similar destruction tactics it has used in both Syria and Chechnya in the past.
The worst-case scenario is for Russia to continue firing and violently bombing long-range missiles to defeat its defenses, Berdal estimates.
He said the result could be a protracted war like Afghanistan.
Pictures from Ukraine tell of attacks on residential buildings and hospitals. However, Hyytiäinen estimates that Ukraine has not yet seen the complete destruction of cities that was witnessed in Europe during World War II.
– The war has been quite traditional, and Russia has destroyed targets such as military airports in particular. Although there have been civilian casualties, Russia still does not appear to have targeted the civilian population, Hyytiäinen says.
The interview was conducted before Russia was reported to have bombed a theater in Mariupol on Wednesday. The Reuters news agency reported that there were at least five hundred civilians in the building, according to human rights organization Human Rights Watch. The extent of the damage caused by the attack is not yet known.
Representative of Human Rights Watch Belkis Wille says there have been serious concerns about the location of the attack on a besieged, civilian – filled city. Russia’s defense ministry denies the country’s armed forces hit the theater.
The complete destruction of the cities is yet to be seen
According to Professor Berdal, the war against his relatives will cause Russia to control the actions of its soldiers.
It has not been reported from Ukraine either that Russian civilians have been harassed or terrorized by Russian soldiers. However, the war is still going on and no information has been available about the events.
The Ukrainian civilian population has openly defied the occupier in many places. In the cities it conquered, the mind has been shown waving blue-yellow flags.
The civilian population openly defies the attacker
According to Hyytiäinen, the defiance shown by Ukrainian civilians is not necessarily just a moment’s enthusiasm. After the occupations of Crimea and eastern Ukraine, Ukrainians have had eight years to prepare for a new crisis.
Hyytiäinen points out that in Lithuania, for example – a NATO country – a hundred-page guide to civil resistance was distributed to the population as early as 2015. Instructions for an attack have been available even in Sweden.
In Ukraine, the tradition of resistance dates back to the early 20th century, when the country was fighting the Russian Bolsheviks. Even after World War II, the Ukrainian Forest Brothers continued to resist the harassment of Soviet rule.
Hyytiäinen estimates that civil resistance and guerrilla movements have already been planned in Ukraine this time as well.