Ukraine’s red lines for grain exports

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— First of all, I must make one thing clear: We have not entered into any agreement with Russia.

That’s what Taras Vysotskij, Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Agriculture, says on a link from the capital, Kyiv.

He is referring to the separate, but identical, agreements signed by Russia and Ukraine via the United Nations on Friday.

The agreement allows Ukraine to export grain from three ports in the Odessa area. More than 20 million tonnes of grain are stuck in Ukraine following Russia’s invasion of the country, driving up food prices internationally.

According to Vysotsky, negotiations became possible after Russia withdrew from the northwestern Black Sea, including the Ormion, which was taken over early in the war.

— Russia has lost the ability to control this part of Ukraine. That’s why they agreed to the agreement, he says.

“Don’t Trust Them”

Last Saturday – just one day after the agreements were signed – Odessa was attacked by Russian robots. Turkey initially stated that Russia assured on Saturday that it had nothing to do with the attack. But on Sunday, the Kremlin claimed responsibility for the drone strike, claiming it had sunk a military ship.

Vysotsky says that neither silos nor ships transporting grain were damaged in the attack – but that it was close. He does not rule out that the grain was the intended target of the robots.

“It happened in a harbor area and everything is quite close, around a hundred meters away,” he says.

And the deputy minister of agriculture also does not rule out that more attacks are to be expected against the port area.

— Unfortunately, we are used to Russia not keeping its word. We are at war and don’t trust them. But we hope that our partners can urge Russia to comply with the agreement, he says.

Grain caravan

Ukraine is one of the world’s largest grain exporters. The country accounts for around ten percent of the world’s exports of barley and wheat, and for almost half of the world’s exports of sunflower oil.

Some countries are directly dependent on imports from Ukraine. Among other things, the country accounts for half of Tunisia’s and Libya’s wheat imports. In the case of Lebanon, that figure is 81 percent.

The actual export will take place with the help of a “grain caravan”. To prepare for an attack on coastal cities, Ukraine has placed sea mines along the coast outside the Black Sea ports. A narrow strip will be mined where the freighters can then exit, escorted by a escort vessel.

According to Vysotsky, this does not affect the security situation, and he sees no risk of Russia mapping the transport routes and then entering via the mine-cleared strip.

— Our military does not make that assessment. If something does happen, our reaction will be quick, he says.

At the same time, he points out that no military ships will be included in the transports.

Red lines

And exports can start already within a week, he adds. But it will only happen in limited forms: To reach full capacity, Ukraine needs “stable security guarantees”, which according to Vysotskij could take up to two months.

The time limit on the agreement is set at 120 days, and it can then be extended for an equal amount of time if both parties wish. Vysotsky hopes that the agreement can be implemented, but is also clear that there are limits on the Ukrainian side.

— Our red line is that they must not harm the crews of the civilian ships. Their – and the ships’ – safety must be guaranteed, he says.

TT: Is there any room to conclude an agreement directly with Russia?

– No. I can only answer questions related to agriculture, but there is no possibility there as long as the war is going on.

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