Ukraine’s next goal: Cut the railway

The Russians say they have left the small Ukrainian community of Robotyne. It is seen as a sign of progress for Ukraine in the war, although the location itself is not of much importance.

– What you can hope for is that the plug has come out a little. But there is still a lot of work to be done, says Lieutenant Colonel Johan Huovinen.

The main line of defense that Ukraine has now broken through in Zaporizhzhya County is the line of defense that Russia has prioritized.

– Subsequent lines of defense are not as well developed and not as well manned, so what you can hope for is that the plug has come out a little, says Johan Huovinen, military strategist at the Defense University in Stockholm.

He adds:

– But a lot of work still remains and it is not certain that the Ukrainian side will reach where they had wanted, that is to stand with their boots on the northern shore of Lake Azov.

The next step for the Ukrainian forces is now to reach the heavily fortified Tokmak railway junction a few miles south of Robotyne. A few more miles in the same direction is the larger town of Melitopol near Lake Azov.

Important railway track

At Tokmak, Ukraine wants to cut off the rail link, which would greatly impact the capabilities of Russian forces. The railway track is used for Russian transport and stretches from the Mariupol area up towards Tokmak and down towards Crimea. If Ukraine can access the railway, it can affect Russian military maintenance in the long term. Ammunition transport in particular is preferably done by rail.

– If you can affect the railway network, you make it more difficult for Russia to logistically maintain its military units in this area, says Johan Huovinen.

Cutting off land corridors

But it is not only the railway tracks at Tokmak that Ukraine wants. By getting down to Melitopol, they hope in a later step to also be able to cut off the land corridor that stretches from Mariupol to Crimea.

Then it is possible to create a feeling that Crimea is isolated, says Johan Huovinen.

– If you also succeed in knocking off the bridge to Crimea – which you can do if you were to get down to the northern shore of Lake Azov – you can reach the bridge from there with, for example, Himars robots and blow it to pieces completely. Then you could really succeed in isolating Crimea and then perhaps reach such a situation that you can get the Russian side to the negotiating table.

Winter offensive

In the outside world and in Ukraine, opinions are aired that the planned spring offensive, which turned into a summer offensive and which has now been going on for three months, is going far too slowly.

– Initially, it had been hoped that it might go faster. We have since understood that the amount of expanded Russian defense combined with tank mines has meant that they have not been able to arrive as quickly as they would have liked. But what we have seen on the Ukrainian side is that they have made it through, and so far with quite a few losses when you look at the material side, says Johan Huovinen.

At the moment there is a month or maybe a month and a half to continue the offensive as it looks today. Then comes autumn, when the road conditions make it difficult to continue forward in the same way and the offensive is forced to slow down

– Then the Ukrainian side will have to go into defense for a couple of months, and then when it gets frosty on the hill turn into some type of winter offensive in January, says Johan Huovinen.

FACT Ukraine

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