Ukraine is believed to have used US ATACMS robots in attacks on an airfield near Berdyansk and near the city of Luhansk for the first time on Tuesday night. The attacks were confirmed by the Ukrainian military on Tuesday morning. The attack on the airfield in Luhansk is described by Russian voices as one of the largest against the Russian Air Force to date.
Russia’s government has previously declared that US deliveries of long-range missiles, known as ATACMS, would cross one of its “red lines” regarding the war. How extensive the ATACMS delivery from the US has been is, however, unconfirmed, according to Joakim Paasikivi, but the robots have been long awaited.
– This is something Ukraine has wanted for a long time, he says.
Significance for the war
ATACMS will benefit Ukraine’s operational planning and is an important addition to Ukraine’s overall capability, along with previous weapons deliveries, according to Paasikivi.
But while the first robotic operations so far have been described as “successful” by the Ukrainian military’s Special Forces (SSO), ATACMS will not be able to guarantee a Ukrainian win. Rather, it should be considered a complement in a weapon system that works, according to Paasikivi.
– This is an important weapon for Ukraine, but it is also an important political weapon because the US is now letting it go, which is another signal that the West does not take into account Russian red lines, says Joakim Paasikivi and continues:
– But in itself it is difficult and there are no miracle weapons that can change the war in one fell swoop. Except for weapons of mass destruction.
Like cluster grenades
The robot has a range of about 10 miles and is a maneuvering ballistic robot, which means that it flies in a, for the enemy, random trajectory so that it is harder to shoot down. When it reaches the goal, it covers an area of around 4.5 football pitches. The charge in the robot consists of around 950 smaller charges that sit in clusters and each cluster bomb has the same effect as a hand grenade, according to Paasikivi.
– The cluster grenades are splinter-forming and that makes it work very well against aircraft depots, helicopters, fuel depots and people for that matter, says Joakim Paasikivi.
Can threaten with nuclear weapons
The delivery from the US has taken place in secret, something Paasikivi believes is due to the desire to use the surprise effect to prevent Russia from preparing for a possible ATACMS attack. And the Russian response may be to threaten nuclear weapons through Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council.
– What the Russians can do now is to send out Dmitry Medvedev who threatens with nuclear weapons, that’s what they usually do. But the Russians cannot have any other real effect unless they intend to start a nuclear war, and quite a few believe that they intend to do so.