Russia’s attack in Ukraine is not progressing, and the conflict has developed into a positional war.
The talk has now moved on to what is Ukraine’s next move.
Will it launch a major counterattack like last fall, when it managed to recapture large areas of land from Russian forces?
We asked two military experts, a military professor at the National Defense University From Aki-Mauri Huhtin and from the Defense Forces’ long-term Russia expert, lieutenant colonel evp. Juhani from Pihlajamaahow the war will proceed next.
Ukrainian counterattack likely, but when?
The commanders of the Ukrainian armed forces have hinted that Ukraine will launch a counterattack at some point during the spring. Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said last week that a counterattack could happen very soon.
Pihlajamaa considers it likely that Ukraine will launch a counterattack against Russian forces at some point.
– They have a strong desire to show their citizens that they are able to take back the lost territories and show the Western countries that the armed aid they provide is useful, he assessed in an interview with .
However, according to Pihlajamaa, it is difficult to assess exactly, because Ukraine is launching a counterattack.
Offensive warfare is very different in nature from the positional warfare currently taking place at the front, and requires significantly more equipment.
– The decisive role is when there is enough equipment received from the West to start a major attack, he estimates.
According to Huhtinen of the National Defense University, the weather conditions are now such that it is not worth launching a major attack yet. According to him, it’s so bad outside of the carriers that you can’t move fast there with heavy equipment.
– A counterattack would therefore be possible in May at the earliest, when the weather improves, Huhtinen estimates.
According to him, it is also not written in stone that Ukraine will launch a large-scale attack. According to Huhtinen, it may also attack the Russian front with several small-scale attacks.
– But it is clear that Ukraine will take advantage of Russia’s weak progress, he states.
Ukraine should try from the south
The conflict is currently frozen into a positional war, where the biggest battles are concentrated especially in the Bahmut and Avdijivka areas.
If Ukraine launches a counterattack, both experts interviewed by believe that it will take place from the south, from the direction of the city of Kherson.
– It would be easier for Ukraine to advance there than in the east or north, where Russia has been building functioning supply chains since 2014 and more recently its defense, says Huhtinen.
According to him, the counterattack could take place in the area that stretches from Zaporizhia through Melitopol to the shores of the Sea of Azov.
– Russia’s defense is not as strong there and it maintains its troops from Crimea via a few bridges, he estimated.
Pihlajamaa agrees that the counterattack will most likely take place from the south.
– The most reasonable way for Ukraine to cause trouble for Russia would be to attack Melitopol and thereby try to cut off Russia’s coastal route from Crimea, he estimated.
In this way, Ukraine could provoke the Russian troops located near Kherson.
According to Pihilajamaa, an attack there would not be a simple matter either, and it would take several months in the worst case.
– I don’t believe that Ukraine would try to take Crimea back at this very stage. It should be attacked there along narrow isthmuses, where Russia can concentrate a significant amount of artillery fire and missile strikes.
Ukraine will hardly be able to surprise Russia
When Ukraine launched a counterattack at the end of last August, it quickly recaptured more than a thousand square kilometers of territory that had been seized from the Russian forces.
The attack came as a surprise to Russia at the time.
According to experts interviewed by , this is now less likely, as Ukraine does not have enough equipment for a diversionary attack.
– It must concentrate a large number of soldiers and equipment in one direction of action, and Russia will notice this, Pihjalamaa believes.
Russia also knows that it would make the most sense for Ukraine to launch a counterattack from the south. According to Huhtinen, the battle space is very well known from both sides.
– Ukraine knows very well the movements of Russian troops, because it has access to Western intelligence. But correspondingly, Russia will notice if Ukraine starts moving a large number of soldiers and equipment, he says.
Until now, Ukraine’s trump card has been high-quality operational security, which means it has been able to keep its own plans secret.
Recently, the country’s deputy defense minister Hanna Malyar appealed to the country’s media and individual citizens not to say anything about a possible Ukrainian counterattack.
– There is no need to ask experts on broadcasts about a counterattack, write about it on blogs or otherwise talk about our army’s plans in public. Our goal is to liberate all occupied territories, and how we do this is a military secret, he wrote on his Telegram channel.
A lot depends on the military aid of the Western countries and the fighting ability of the Ukrainian forces
Position war has been very consuming for both Ukraine and Russia. The losses of the forces are measured in tens of thousands.
For a counterattack, Ukraine needs to gather a large enough number of soldiers, several tens of thousands.
According to Huhtinen, Ukraine needs specially trained soldiers who know how to use the weapons it received from Western countries.
– Ukraine also clearly needs to improve the skills between different types of weapons. Air defense, tanks, infantry, maintenance and pioneers must be able to cooperate better than now. This requires training and is slow, he says.
According to Huhtinen, Ukraine is completely dependent on the arms aid received from Western countries, because the positional war has been exhausting.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi has even said that Ukraine does not have the ability to launch a counterattack until the West sends it more military support.
According to Pihlajamaa, an offensive war requires Ukraine to skillfully use armored forces, which it has not been able to practice.
– The fall counterattack was less difficult for Ukraine because Russia withdrew its troops from the areas where Ukraine was advancing. This will not happen now, but Ukraine will have to advance several kilometers a day, fighting, he predicts.
A successful counterattack would be a heavy blow to Russia, but would hardly solve the war
What would happen if the Ukrainian counter-offensive was a success? According to experts, there are many scenarios.
According to Pihlajamaa, it would at least be a huge propaganda victory for Ukraine, as it would prove that it is capable of something that Russia was not able to do – to seize territories from the enemy through the front line of a positional war.
– This would underline Russia’s failure in warfare. In this situation, Russia should think about whether to start peace negotiations or whether to persistently continue fighting battles, he says.
Huhtinen reminds that Russia’s resilience to defeat is strong, even though the country’s ability to fight wars is poor.
According to him, a successful counterattack by Ukraine would affect Russian public opinion about the war.
– But it would hardly solve the war. For Ukraine, of course, it would improve combat morale, he estimated.
According to Huhtinen, a successful counter-offensive would be important for Ukraine also because it could show the Western countries that the armed aid it gives is effective.
And this would also increase the unity of the West in supporting Ukraine, Huhtinen believes.