GRANADA The discussion about Ukraine’s path to the European Union is becoming more and more lively as the decisive decisions on the next steps of its EU membership process approach.
A report on the progress of Ukraine and other applicant countries is expected from the commission next month. Based on this, the leaders of the EU countries will outline whether the actual membership negotiations can be started.
The summit meeting of the European Council at the end of December is considered a milestone, when a unanimous decision on starting negotiations can be made.
The EU leaders already gave the green light once to accept Ukraine as an official candidate country in the summer of 2022. However, the EU Commission set conditions for Ukraine, which the country must fulfill before the negotiations begin.
The commission urges Ukraine to tackle bribery and money laundering, limit the influence of oligarchs and improve the status of minorities.
In Brussels, Ukraine’s commitment to meet the criteria widely praised. Its membership process is seen to have progressed despite the state of emergency caused by the Russian attack.
The pressure to make a positive decision this year is enormous: the start of membership negotiations would be an indication to the Ukrainians preparing for another winter of war that the talks about EU membership are not just words.
A completely different question is when Ukraine’s EU membership would be a reality if negotiations are started.
President of the European Council Charles Michelin according to which Ukraine can be a member of the EU before 2030 “if both parties do their homework.”
Chairman of the Commission Ursula von der Leyen on the other hand, does not want to define a timetable for when Ukraine or other EU applicant countries could become members.
Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (council) he also does not want to give a timetable for when the expansion should take place. However, he hopes that the union will be significantly wider by 2030.
– Considering the situation, Ukraine most urgently needs a clear message and a promise that they will become a member of the EU as long as the criteria are met, Orpo commented in the parliament on Tuesday.
According to Orpo, accepting new countries as members of the Union is a “geopolitical necessity”. At the same time, Finland emphasizes the importance of the criteria for membership to all applicant countries.
Orpo also underlined the effects of enlargement on the mutual burden sharing of the current EU countries. According to him, many of the EU’s net beneficiaries would find themselves in the position of payers if Ukraine’s EU membership comes true.
It has also been seen in public for the first time accurate calculations of what Ukraine’s membership would cost other member countries.
of the Financial Times according to the estimate seen, Ukraine would be entitled to EUR 186 billion in subsidies within the framework of the EU’s seven-year long-term budget. The share of agricultural subsidies would be almost 100 billion euros.
It is clear that the EU’s agricultural policy would have to be reformed if Ukraine becomes part of the European Union and the EU’s internal market.
The expansion of the Union would probably require abandoning the unanimity principle in EU decision-making: Hungary’s braking of sanctions decisions against Russia has shown the pitfalls of decision-making that requires unanimity.
The situation in Ukraine is discussed In Granada, Spain, tomorrow, Friday, when EU leaders meet for an informal summit.
The leaders will also discuss current issues such as migration and the EU’s next strategic program, which will record the goals after the EU parliamentary elections in June.
Today, Thursday, the European political community, which brings together the leaders of the European Union and twenty non-EU countries, will meet in Granada.
The meeting is expected to provide a framework for dialogue between Armenia and Azerbaijan, following Azerbaijan’s attack on Nagorno-Karabakh.
However, it seems that the meeting between Azerbaijan and Armenia will not take place. President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev announced yesterday, Wednesday, that he would miss the day’s meeting.
The president of Turkey, known as a supporter of Azerbaijan Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also announced the cancellation of his participation in the summit of the European political community.
The absence of Erdoğan and Aliyev is a blow to the credibility of the political community and the EU’s attempts to ease tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
What thoughts did the story evoke in you? You can comment on the topic until Friday, October 6 at 11 p.m