The type of attack that knocked out a gas terminal in the port city of Ust-Luga is a new threat to Russia.
According to information from the ISW think tank, the Russian air force is poorly prepared for attacks from the south – after historically focusing on being able to defend itself against NATO.
– Russia will not be able to cover all the holes that are needed, says Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi.
During Sunday morning, a gas terminal in the Russian port city of Ust-Luga was attacked.
A Ukrainian drone attack is likely behind the attack.
– They have partly taken it upon themselves and the attack follows a pattern that makes it reasonable to assume that Ukraine is behind it, says Joakim Paasikivi to TV4 Nyheterna.
Creating problems for Russia
Now a Russian source with access to the think tank ISW states that Russia’s air defense in the Leningrad Oblast is not set up to defend itself against attacks from the south. Instead, Russia has historically prepared for attacks from the west and northwest.
According to Joakim Paasikivi, it is a problem that Russia shares with all countries that have developed air defense systems.
– In the past, the threats have come from cruise robots and aircraft. Then they have also focused on developing systems for that at the front level, he says.
This type of attack is seen as a new strategy on the part of Ukraine. In his New Year’s address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Russia that the country will suffer on the home front.
“Hard punch”
Paasikivi says that Russia has not succeeded in defending itself in the four Russian towns that Ukraine has so far attacked. Something that forces Russia to move its air defense system to be able to defend itself against similar attacks.
– The Russians really have to think about what they have to defend, how to defend themselves and whether they will be able to defend themselves. And there the answer is no, he says.
Ukraine’s drone attacks against industrial and economic targets will therefore have a long-term impact in the war for Russia.
– It is a hard blow. Oil production and gas exports are Russia’s main source of income. And this affects at least some of it. In addition, there are also Russia’s own problems where water pipes break in the cold and people are without electricity, says Joakim Paasikivi and continues:
– There are more Russians who are materially worse off than the Ukrainians, says Joakim Paasikivi.