There are many signs that Ukraine has begun its long-awaited counteroffensive. This is what three military experts interviewed by say.
The situation on the war front has been deadlocked for months, but lately movement in Ukraine has increased.
Yesterday, Monday, Russia claimed to have repelled a large-scale attack by Ukraine in the Donetsk region. The true extent of the attack is unknown, but there have been reports of fighting at least in the Velyka Novosilka area of southern Donetsk. In addition, Ukraine has said that it has advanced around Bahmut in Donetsk.
On Tuesday, media attention was taken by the breaking of the huge Kahovka dam in southern Ukraine. Ukraine and Russia accuse each other of blowing up the dam.
asked three experts about the war situation in Ukraine. They are a military professor at the National Defense University Aki-Mauri HuhtinenAlexander Institute Visiting researcher, docent of military sciences Ilmari Käihkö and a teacher of military strategy at the Swedish National Defense University Joakim Paasikivi.
1. Has the counterattack started?
Joakim Paasikivi: I would say that at least the initial phase of the counterattack has begun. After all, the preparation of the attack has been going on for almost two months.
Based on the kind of information we see on social media, we can say that at least the exploration has begun. The start of the attack is also indicated by the strange claims of the Russians about repelling the invasion of Ukraine.
Ilmari Käihkö: It is possible that a counterattack has begun. Things are happening on several frontal blocks. It is unclear what, but there is some movement there.
Ukraine has been talking about a counterattack for months, and expectations inside the country are huge. You have to remember that the clock is ticking all the time. The war has been in a deadlock since November. Ukraine must change this and be active so that Russia loses territories. Now we can see those measures quite clearly.
Aki-Mauri Huhtinen: Yes, at least to some extent. It can be said that the phase of preparation, reconnaissance and launching the operation is underway.
Unseen is a traditional breakthrough attempt, in which the front line would be broken and the Ukrainian troops would advance tens of kilometers. Such a thing is hidden until the end, and it is not yet known whether such a thing will even be seen.
It may be that the counterattack is a series of operations varying in strength and tempo. Of course, Ukraine is trying to take over the lands that Russia took from it, but another goal is to weaken Russia’s ability to fight.
2. What things support the notion that a counterattack has started?
Joakim Paasikivi: Videos uploaded to social media, as well as official Russian statements and comments by war bloggers. They indicate that something is happening.
At the moment it seems to be happening on the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions, near Vuhledar. But the situation is very unclear – as well as where Ukraine will focus its main force.
Aki-Mauri Huhtinen: Ukraine’s activity has increased in recent weeks. Ukraine has struck command posts, service centers and transport links behind the front lines in Russian-occupied territories. Attempts to penetrate Ukraine have also been seen on the southern front. Ukraine has tried to find Russia’s weak points. This indicates that they have set off.
Ilmari Käihkö: Communication. Ukraine should not talk about what is really happening at the moment, but they are hinting all the time. For example [Ukrainan armeijan julkaisema] finger to mouth video implies that something is happening but should not be talked about.
In addition, we have heard information from Russia about counterattack. The Ukrainians, on the other hand, have said that they advanced in the direction of Bahmut.
We don’t know if the deadlocked situation of the war will be lifted, but there is more movement than usual. This indicates that there is an attempt to break the lock.
3. Will Ukraine at some point officially announce that the counter-offensive has begun?
Joakim Paasikivi: Such an announcement may come, but only a long time after the counterattack has actually started. Then, when it’s obvious that hiding the operation is no longer useful. For now, it is important for Ukraine to have the possibility of surprise in terms of where and when the various attacks are carried out.
I assume that Ukraine intends to try to break through the Russian lines on a relatively wide front. It is worth trying to hide for as long as possible where the main focus of the attack is.
Aki-Mauri Huhtinen: I don’t think Ukraine will separately announce that “now we will attack here and at this time”. I think the announcement is from the President of Ukraine to Volodymyr Zelensky last week’s statement that a counterattack had been decided.
Ilmari Käihkö: Ukraine should probably start talking about a counterattack when it has achieved something. Until then, it pays to keep expectations low.
Ukraine has a contradictory situation: it must constantly communicate that the war is going in the right direction for it. But if they start talking about a counterattack and there are no results, the end result could easily be the opposite: faith in Ukraine’s ability to succeed could weaken.
4. How can the breaking of the Kahovka dam affect Ukraine’s military operations?
Joakim Paasikivi: The breaking of the dam will benefit the Russians the most. When the lower reaches of the Dnieper flood, it is difficult for Ukraine to cross the river and threaten [Venäjän valtaamaa] Crimean peninsula.
The Ukrainian counter-attack in itself is not destroyed by the breaking of the dam, but it causes many other problems for the Ukrainian government: it is necessary to take into account the possible effects on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and manage the rescue work of people in the area.
Aki-Mauri Huhtinen: It is clear that blowing up is more in Russia’s interests. Crossing the Dnieper will be impossible for Ukraine for the time being. I don’t think this will matter much in the long term, but at least a quick recapture of Crimea is not possible for Ukraine now with this operation.
On the other hand, I think that Ukraine is prepared for this. There has been a lot of public discussion about what will happen if the dam is blown up.
At the same time, it is also a water storage for Crimea. Russia is communicating here that it is ready to destroy the territory it has occupied. Russia is desperate.
This also perhaps indicates that Russia has given up on conquering more territories. It holds on tooth and nail to the territories it has seized from Ukraine.
Ilmari Käihkö: There will be more negative consequences for Ukraine if the dam breaks.
In addition to the difficulty of water supply in Crimea, the disadvantage for Russia is that some of its stations on the east bank of the Dnieper may be flooded.
The dam’s failure will complicate any potential Ukrainian efforts to cross the river. It is already a difficult operation in itself and now even more difficult.
The situation also forces Ukraine to evacuate the residents of the area, and it also has extensive consequences for the area’s nature.