Ukraine’s counterattack has lasted almost three months and progressed slowly, but now Russia’s defense line has begun to tear, for example in the Donetsk region in Urožaine.
A military professor Aki-Mauri Huhtinen according to Ukraine’s counterattack, there have been significant breakthroughs, albeit small in kilometers.
– It seems that Ukraine has made a breakthrough in Russia’s first line of defense in Urožaine, says Huhtinen.
Also the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Malyarin according to the Ukrainian troops continue to advance in the direction of Urožainen. According to newspaper reports There has been an outright massacre in Urožaine.
According to Huhtinen, the Russians did not withdraw their troops in time enough and therefore lost a significant amount of both soldiers and equipment.
– The Russians retreated in column in the middle of the day and were hit by Ukrainian artillery fire, says Huhtinen.
The algae-based withdrawal of the Russians may ultimately benefit Ukraine. According to Huhtinen, Ukraine will be able to significantly destroy Russian equipment if Russia becomes the underdog.
– Of course, Russia can afford this, but it cannot work endlessly in such a way that it loses equipment and troops both when attacking and defending, states Huhtinen.
“It could be a significant advance”
Also a teacher of military strategy Joakim Paasikivi The Swedish National Defense Academy says that Ukraine has made progress in both the Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions, albeit slowly.
– The front is advancing slowly because of Russian minefields, but it is advancing, Paasikivi tells .
Both in Donetsk and Zaporizhia, Ukrainian artillery fire causes big problems for Russia, says Paasikivi. In both places, Ukraine seems to have reached Russia’s first lines of defense.
– This can be very significant, especially if Ukraine gets through Russian minefields. Only in that case can we talk about a breakthrough, Paasikivi estimates.
Ukraine also received bridgehead stations on the east side of the Dnieper
Last week, it was reported that Ukrainian boats had arrived on the eastern side of the Dnieper, which is occupied by Russia.
According to Paasikivi, it appears that Ukraine has a small but manned position roughly halfway between the blown-up Kahovka dam and the city of Kherson.
It is uncertain whether Ukraine will seek to expand its territory east of the Dnieper, but Russia appears to be in a difficult position there.
– According to fairly reliable information, Russia has sent reinforcements in the direction of Zaporizhia from the Kherson and Dnieper regions. This weakens Russia’s defense on the Dnieper, says Paasikivi.
Russia leans on minefields, Ukraine on cannon fire
According to Joakim Paasikivi, despite Ukraine’s progress, the most significant thing is that Ukraine’s counterattack has not progressed as quickly as Ukraine and many others expected.
According to him, the reason for this is that Russia’s minefields have been much wider than expected.
– The density of mines is enormous. It is much larger than what Russia’s own military doctrine prescribes, says Paasikivi.
Ukraine’s first attempt to get through the minefields failed, and Finnish Leopard tanks were also destroyed there. Passing without air support is difficult, according to Paasikivi.
Ukraine knew how to save its equipment
According to Huhtinen, however, Ukraine has now succeeded in counterattacking because it knows how to save its military equipment better than Russia and is thus able to launch a new attack even after withdrawing.
– It starts to eat Russian troops morally, if Russia does not know how to retreat sensibly and loses troops, and the equipment is not ready for combat, says Huhtinen.
The most important thing for Ukraine now is that Russia would not be able to send troops from Donetsk to the Zaporizhia region, says Paasikivi. Ukraine should aim to destroy especially Russian artillery and its command systems.
In the big picture, Ukraine seems to be advancing in Donetsk and Russia in the Luhansk region.
– It seems that the Ukrainians are making a little more progress than the Russians, Paasikivi estimates.
According to Huhtinen, Ukraine is probably currently learning faster than Russia.
If this situation continues, we can see a bigger breakthrough in late autumn, Huhtinen estimates.
According to Huhtinen, Ukraine should get a bigger breakthrough no later than November, because after that the movement of troops slows down and moves to roads that are easy to mine and cut off.
Read the updated situation on Ukraine monitoring.