Ukraine’s counter-offensive is about to begin, says an expert – the threat of nuclear weapons limits the West’s desire to help Ukraine win over Russia

The counter-offensive of the Ukrainian army in the southern part of the country has probably already started. Military professor at the National Defense University, lieutenant colonel Marko Palokangas says that there have been indications of this in recent days.

– For example, in the direction of Hersonis, there is most obviously one counterattack going on at the moment.

Russian troops occupied Kherson already at the beginning of the war.

Western arms assistance is crucial for the success of a possible counterattack.

– The possibility of a counterattack requires that Ukraine has long-range rocket launchers with which it can isolate Russian supplies to the Hersoni region, says the director of the research college of the University of Helsinki, professor Tuomas Forsberg.

– Ukraine has hit the bridges, which seems to prevent the Russians from moving heavy equipment, says the former intelligence chief of the General Staff, major general (evp) Pekka Toveri.

With this so-called fire preparation, Ukraine aims to shape the battle area in such a way that it could break through the opponent’s defense.

There is still no precise information about a possible counterattack by the Ukrainians.

– I believe that we will see in the next few days whether the counterattack will bite or whether it will change this fight in some direction, Palokangas says.

Attacking in war is always more difficult than defending.

– Russia has had time to strengthen its defense in certain areas, such as Kherson, so retaking Ukraine will not be easy, Tuomas Forsberg says.

Pekka Toveri estimates that during August it will be clear whether Ukraine is capable of a counterattack.

– Ukraine might have the opportunity to take over the northern side of the Dnieper river, says Toveri.

Going on the attack later could be even more difficult, because Russia is constantly bringing more soldiers to Ukraine to replace the numerous fallen and injured.

Russia has accelerated the recruitment of soldiers by, among other things, promising them a salary multiple times the average monthly salary of Russians.

Success in the counteroffensive would strengthen Ukrainians’ will to fight, which is bound to be tough after months of grueling fighting.

Western arms aid has been significant for Ukraine throughout the war.

– I would dare to say that without the help of the West, Ukraine’s defense would have already collapsed, says Pekka Toveri.

More long-range and more accurate weapon systems than before increase Ukraine’s will and ability to fight and weaken the ability of the Russian armed forces to fight.

– For example, the Russian armed forces have had to move their command posts and maintenance centers further away from the so-called front line. They know that Ukraine can influence their background even more deeply, says Marko Palokangas.

According to Tuomas Forsberg, it is clear that the United States and other Western countries want to support the Ukrainians to defend themselves at least so that Russia is unable to seize more territories.

What is unclear is how far the West will go to help Ukraine defeat Russia.

Forsberg estimates that, for example, a possible recapture of the Crimean peninsula could worry at least some of the Western countries.

The biggest concern is related to Russia’s nuclear weapons threat. With its unpredictability, Russia has made others fear the escalation of war and the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons in the region.

– This is a concern that quite wide circles take into account, because it cannot be completely ruled out, says Forsberg.

Pekka Toveri does not believe in the use of nuclear weapons.

– Even if Putin is ready for it, his inner circle is not, Toveri says.

The war may last a long time. Russia has not gotten as far in eastern Ukraine as it would have liked. In the south, Russia has not been able to completely isolate Ukraine from the sea.

Russia brings more troops to Ukraine, but not enough. The Ukrainians receive arms aid from the West, but not in a revolutionary way.

– There are quite a few factors that speak in favor of the fact that the fighting is not going to end right away, says Marko Palokangas.

According to Palokanka, the president of Russia Vladimir Putin and the actions of the entire administration have proven to be reckless. For example, Russia agreed on the export of Ukrainian grain, but the very next day attacked the port of Odessa, which is important for exports.

– There doesn’t seem to be any kind of negotiation connection and desire for a ceasefire or a peace agreement, says Palokangas.

The leadership of Ukraine, on the other hand, cannot agree to peace, because the majority of the citizens are against territorial cessions.

Thus, battles can freeze in place and turn into a frozen conflict lasting months or years.

Tuomas Forsberg thinks that in such a situation, the Russians hope that the Western countries will get tired of the war and forget about Ukraine. Ukraine, on the other hand, hopes that something would happen in the Kremlin that would affect Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Experts agree that the longer the war continues, the more difficult it may become for Ukraine to regain the territories seized by Russia. That is why the next few weeks are so decisive for Ukraine.