Kastehelmi, who followed the war with his team from the beginning, believes that Russia’s claims about Ukraine’s losses are exaggerated.
Ukrainian war expert Emil Kastehelmi does not believe that the Ukrainian attack in Donbas, as told by Russia, would be the beginning of Ukraine’s long-planned counterattack.
Instead, it must be part of the preparation for a wider attack. Ukraine was hardly even looking for a very deep breakthrough and a change in the front lines, Kastehelmi estimates.
Russia has claimed to have repelled a large-scale attack by Ukraine in southern Donetsk and to have caused it heavy losses of men and equipment. Ukraine has not commented on the allegations.
According to Kastelhelme, it can be concluded from several sources that Ukraine has carried out attacks around the city of Velyka Novosilka, which have not progressed very far.
On the other hand, there is no certain information about how extensive the attack has been, what Ukraine’s real goals have been and who controls what in the area in question, Kastehelmi tells in a phone interview.
Kastehelmi doubts the information about the losses and the extent of the attack
Russia has claimed that Ukraine attacked on Sunday morning in five sectors with a total of eight battalions.
According to Kastehelmi, the claim of eight battalions is quite large, and only one larger one has actually been able to identify attack sectors.
– Smaller attacks have probably occurred elsewhere. They happen a little constantly. In that sense, I don’t doubt that the statement could be true.
Of course, the scale was now a bit larger than Ukraine usually has in this type of operations, he points out. Depending on what the size category was in reality, it could be that it was significantly larger.
– But this does not yet seem like an attack whose goal or even opportunity would have been to drive a bigger wedge into the Russian positions. Probably the goals were more limited.
He also does not consider reliable such large data about the losses suffered by Ukraine as presented by Russia. According to Russia, Ukrainian losses were more than 250 soldiers, 16 tanks, three armored personnel carriers and 21 armored vehicles.
“Ukrainians advanced no more than a kilometer or two”
According to Kastehelmi, in its most recent attack, Ukraine has reached at most from the front line to a few villages near it, i.e. advanced a kilometer or two, but according to the current information, not further.
Instead, it is not known what exactly Russia’s claim of repelling the attack means. The Russians have managed to stop the attack a couple of kilometers away.
– On the other hand, it is not known whether the Russians have also succeeded in getting back the territories they lost, i.e. whether the parties are at the starting point or whether Ukraine has been able to hold on to the couple of villages and fields it has gained.
“No word yet on the direction of the counterattack”
According to Kastehelmi, the attacks carried out by Ukraine in southern Donetsk do not yet indicate that this is the main direction of Ukraine’s planned counterattack.
– It cannot be concluded yet, reasoning also requires other indicators.
However, he reminds that when such a larger counter-attack takes place, there are several smaller operations at the same time.
– The counter-attack is not one where the whistle is blown and the brigades with their western armor roll into a certain area, but it is a series of operations, and somewhere a stronger strike is made.
The South Donetsk direction in question would indeed be one possible attack direction from which it would be possible to threaten the land connection from Crimea to Russia. This direction also has significant cities such as Mariupol.
– In order to be able to cut off the land connection, it is a longer journey to the sea from this direction than in the direction of Melitopol. It may still be that Ukraine considers that the Russians have prepared so strongly in the direction of Melitopol that it is better to start the attack head on and not to attack by the shortest route, Kastehelmi estimates.