“Ukraine will undergo the same fate as Czechoslovakia in 1938” – L’Express

In a premonitory work published last year, America Last (America lastnot translated), Jacob Heilbrunn highlighted the fascination of the American “right wing” for dictators and strong man of the old continent, from Kaiser Guillaume II to Vladimir Putin, passing by Mussolini, Franco and Prime Minister Hungarian Viktor Orban. “Donald Trump considers democracy as fundamentally weak and corrupt, therefore lower than authoritarianism,” explains the author.

Useful precision: Heilbrunn, who has not voted Trump, is not a leftist activist. On the contrary, he directed the geopolitics review in Washington The National Interest Launched in 1985 by Irving Kristol, considered the founder of American neoconservatism. At a time when Donald Trump claims to impose peace in Ukraine and cut the world into “spheres of influence”, the geopolitician believes that only a recession will be able to swarm the supporters of the American president and stop the latter in his authoritarian drift. Interview.

L’Express: How do you interpret Donald Trump’s position on Ukraine and his dialogue with Vladimir Putin?

Jacob Heibrunn. Donald Trump wants to make a deal on the back of the Ukrainians. Their country will undergo the same fate as Czechoslovakia at the Munich conference in 1938. During its meeting planned in Saudi Arabia with Putin, it will ratify the division of Ukraine. Beyond the Ukrainian case, he is saying “Arrival“To Europeans -“bye-bye“,”AUF WIEDERSHEH“,”Goodbye“… He does not like Europe, which he sees as an economic competitor. He does not like NATO either. You have seen how his defense secretary Pete Hegseth did the lesson to Europeans this week In Brussels? “NATO must be stronger … and not a diplomatic club,” he said before the start of the meeting. Problem is yours. “Not very friendly for an ally …

Does Trump’s entourage really rejoice at this confrontation with the traditional allies of America?

Trump supporters are in any case delighted. They love this posture. They are enchanted by shock therapy that the president inflicts on the American administration. This week, the latter turned all the members of the Kennedy Center board of directors which, in Washington, is a non -partisan -headed cultural institution. But being unpartherly, for Trump is already to be “woke”. In the field of foreign policy, its room for maneuver is even more important than on the national scene where certain safeguards, especially judicial, can slow it down.

So, internationally, he gave himself to his heart. This is how he thinks he appears as a great leader and he believes that he inspires respect. And this is only the beginning … Many other surprises await us, since this is the nature of Donald Trump’s “show” which governs by the show. I would not be surprised that he soon put pressure on Taiwan in one way or another [il a déjà menacé d’imposer des droits douane sur les semi-conducteurs, alors que l’île en est le premier producteur mondial, NDLR]. This second term will not look like the first: Trump 2 will be much more radical than Trump 1.

What consequences for the world order?

First, Russia is reinforced. Ragaillardi and confirmed in his imperialist approach, Putin will soon threaten the Baltic countries. At the overall level, the Trump presidency will generate – already generates – a lot of volatility, both financial and military. All this will end badly, especially for the United States which will stop being seen as a reliable ally. We are shooting ourselves in the foot. It is self -control. Donald Trump feeds the fantasy that America can both withdraw on itself and remain a superpower.

The reality is different. The United States will become a power that is shrinking. The country will always have its usual assets: quantity natural resources, dominating economic power and a lack of military threat at its borders. America will still be a great power but the more superpower. Canadians have already started to turn away from our country, which impacts the tourism industry. There will be other counterchocs. In fact, Trump’s destabilization policy directs us straight to an economic recession. This is the only thing that can serve as a wake-up to the Americans. When they see that Trump’s economic promise is not held, they will ask him for accounts.

How do you explain the repulsion that Donald Trump feels about Europe?

He prefers to work with authoritarian regimes rather than democracies. He sincerely admires Vladimir Putin. He said it. And he repeated it. On this point he has not changed. He himself intends to act as an authoritarian leader and cut the world starting with Ukraine. Alas, there is not much to hold it back.

Has hundreds of thousands of deaths in Ukraine not changed his vision of Putin?

He doesn’t care. For him, these are just figures. In the same way, there are few cases of the 2 million people who live in Gaza. What matters to him is to make great announcements, thunderous statements, to monopolize media attention, to appear as a great leader. Trump is fundamentally an authoritarian leader. He also admires China. After the Tiananmen square massacre in 1989, he explained in a famous interview to Playboy The following year that the repression had allowed the Chinese government to show “power of force”. He added that, on the contrary, the United States was “currently perceived as weak” and that “the rest of the world spat on it”.

Trump is not a democrat; It is of authoritarian essence. The world is therefore governed by three authoritarian leaders: Trump, Putin and Xi Jinping. Moreover, the 47th American president aims to imitate his Russian counterpart in order to perpetuate himself in power. It will not take long to advance the idea that he can still make a mandate after this one. And that, even if the Constitution prohibits it to him. He started by attacking civil servants and dismissing the bureaucrats in the shovel. Soon he will attack the military. The Pentagon will in turn undergo a purge.

What can Europe do?

Europe is not adapted to the new reality. She did not believe nor seen the profound transformation that was looming. Europeans could not believe that Trump wanted to make a clean table past. The only hope is that Europe is united and that Brussels speaks with one voice. Like the musketeers: “One for all for one!” It is also necessary to hope that the Franco-German couple find colors with the election of the Conservative Friedrich Merz to the Chancellery because it has more firm positions than Olaf Scholz on support for Ukraine. Europeans have advantages, especially economic. For example, they have the means to negotiate on customs duties. If they stand up to Trump, then he will give in. This is always what is happening with the “bullies”, the harassers. When they are resisted, they reveal their true face, that of weakness …