Ukraine’s long-awaited counterattack will start during May, experts estimate.
Head of the Russia group at the National Defense University, lieutenant colonel Simo Pesu assesses in the morning that “something will definitely happen” in May and adds that Ukraine’s plan for a counter-attack has been known since last fall.
The leader of the Wagner mercenary group also came to the same conclusion Yevgeny Prigozhin, which rate (you switch to another service) at the end of April, that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would begin in mid-May.
– The Russians’ offensive ability is running out. At some point, it decreases in such a way that a favorable situation arises for the Ukrainians on some front lines to launch their own offensive, says Pesu.
Pesu sees that the Ukrainians will launch a counterattack when the balance of power on the front is perceived to be favorable or the political pressure is strong enough.
– Then we will probably see serial attacks in different areas, where in one direction the power of the Russians is tied and in the other direction they aim to achieve results in the form of territorial conquests.
Professor of military strategy at the Swedish Defense Academy, lieutenant colonel Joakim Paasikivi evaluates the Swedish public broadcasting company In an interview with SVT (you switch to another service)that the counter-attack would not start until mid-May due to wet weather conditions affecting the mobility of the fleet.
– The problem is that the maintenance teams are transported by trucks, which are basically dependent on the roads. I think it will take until the second half of May before they can move, Paasikivi said in an interview.
Also the Ukrainian ambassador to Britain Vadym Prystaikon according to the weather makes it difficult for the fleet to move.
– At the moment, the weather does not allow the movement of heavy tanks. Spring in Ukraine is usually muddy, Prystaiko told a British TV channel For Sky News (switching to another service).
The West’s faith in Ukraine as a contribution to the counterattack
Aleksanteri Institute Visiting researcher Ilmari Käihkö reminded Ylen’s Ykkösaamu that there are enormous political expectations for Ukraine’s counterattack.
– Ukraine and also others are concerned that these expectations will lead to disappointment if Ukraine does not achieve great military success with its counterattack, Käihkö said.
If Ukraine does not achieve enough with its attack, it may lead to a situation where support for Ukraine will gradually begin to decrease, Käihkö said.
– Perhaps we will start to see from the outside, possibly also among the Ukrainians, that Ukraine will not win this war by fighting. This is certainly a big concern for Ukraine.
If the counterattack is successful, Ukraine has the opportunity to force Russia to the negotiating table, Professor Paasikivi estimates.
– If the counterattack succeeds really well, it will force Russia to realize that this will not work. Then it will be possible to reverse Moscow’s rhetoric that everything is going as planned. It can force a meeting at the negotiation table, Paasikivi said.
Paasikivi does not consider it completely out of the question that the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia could take place already this year.
– My hope is that Ukraine will be successful and that negotiations on the withdrawal of Russian troops will be held by winter. I don’t consider this completely unrealistic, says Paasikivi.
Ukraine’s preparations are nearing their end, and the attack on Sevastopol was part of the preparations
Last week, Ukrainian forces crossed the Dnieper River in the Kherson region and advanced to the east of the river.
A US think tank According to ISW (you switch to another service) located materials collected by Russian war bloggers confirm that Ukraine has advanced in the Kherson region and dug defensive positions on the east bank of the Dnieper.
Military professor at the National Defense University Aki-Mauri Huhtinen assessed in an interview with that the crossing of the river indicates that Ukraine is feeling out and preparing its counterattack.
On Thursday of the same week, a fuel warehouse where more than 40,000 tons of oil was stored caught fire in Sevastopol, the occupied Crimean peninsula.
Governor of Sevastopol, part of the Crimean occupation administration by Mikhail Razvožaev according to the fuel depot caught fire as a result of a drone strike in Ukraine. However, Ukraine did not officially take a position on whether it was the perpetrator of the attacks.
On Sunday, the Director of Communications of the Southern Armed Forces of Ukraine Natalja Humenyuk however, reported that the Sevastopol explosion was a preparation for a counterattack.
– This work is preparation for a large-scale, full-scale attack that everyone is waiting for, Humenjuk said.
On the first day of May, the Minister of Defense Would be Reznikov told (you switch to another service)that the preparations for the Ukrainian counterattack are nearing completion.
– Now we can say that we are approaching the finish line, when we can say yes, everything is ready, Reznikov said in an interview.
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