Like an air of cold war that resonates on the border between Russia and Ukraine. While the United States and NATO are sending reinforcements to Eastern Europe to warn of a possible Russian invasion, Ukrainian soldiers are training in Chernobyl to defend themselves in the event of an attack. An attack that would be large and could occur at any time, according to the White House. On the contrary, Moscow calls for “not to take the word for it” the American accusations and denies for its part any hint of invasion. Kiev, for its part, is betting more on a “diplomatic solution” and asks Westerners not to panic. So, will attack or not attack? Response elements.
An invasion in preparation according to the United States
For the Americans, the situation is clear: Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine. American Intelligence estimates that Moscow is stepping up preparations for a large-scale invasion, and that it already has 70% of the equipment necessary for such an operation, according to American officials. Moscow has thus already massed 110,000 soldiers on the borders of Ukraine, and could have sufficient capacities to launch an offensive in two weeks, according to these officials who have informed the elected representatives of the American Congress and the European partners of the United States in recent days. United.
US Intelligence has not established whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has made the decision to go on the offensive or not, but it wants to give itself all possible options, from the partial invasion of the separatist enclave of Donbass to total invasion. Not to mention the threat of a massive cyberattack.
As the Russian military continues to strengthen around Ukraine, the master of the Kremlin should have sufficient forces for a large-scale invasion, or 150,000 men, in mid-February, they told elected officials. Americans and European allies.
If the Russian president chooses the most drastic option, he could surround Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, and overthrow President Volodymyr Zelensky in 48 hours, according to these officials. They warned that the conflict would have a considerable human cost with the risk of causing the death of 25,000 to 50,000 civilians, 5,000 to 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 3,000 to 10,000 Russian soldiers. It could also cause an influx of 1 to 5 million refugees, mainly to Poland.
Battalions in place
Two weeks ago, 60 army battalions were positioned in the north, east and south of Ukraine, notably in Crimea annexed by Moscow in 2014. On Friday, there were 80 and 14 others are in transit from the rest of Russia, including Vladivostok in the Russian Far East. Some 1,500 Russian special forces soldiers, the fearsome Spetsnaz, arrived a week ago in the border area of Ukraine, according to these officials.
Card
Dario Ingiusto / L’Express
In addition, a large Russian naval force is amassed in the Black Sea, including five amphibious vehicles that could be used for a landing on the southern coast of Ukraine, they pointed out.
They noted that six other such vehicles were observed leaving the Barents Sea, north of Russia, and skirting Britain before passing the Strait of Gibraltar, apparently heading for the Black Sea.
The Russian military has also positioned fighter jets, bombers, missiles and anti-aircraft batteries around Ukraine. The United States said Thursday it had evidence that Moscow was preparing a fake Ukrainian attack video, which would be used as a pretext to invade Ukraine.
Ukraine procrastinates
The Kiev authorities are more measured than the American Intelligence deeming it useless to sow “panic” even if the Ukrainian forces train in urban combat in the Chernobyl exclusion zone, near the Belarusian border. “The probability of the attack exists, it has not disappeared and it has not been less serious in 2021”, but “we do not see an escalation greater than that which existed” last year, assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The Ukrainian presidency also ruled on Sunday that the chances of finding a “diplomatic solution” to the crisis with Russia were “considerably superior” to that of a military “escalation”, according to Mykhaïlo Podoliak, adviser to the head of the Ukrainian presidential administration. In an interview at Guardian this Sunday, the former Ukrainian Defense Minister, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, believes that Russia has enough troops to seize the Ukrainian capital, or another major city, but not enough for a complete occupation of the country , according to the former Ukrainian defense minister.
Washington assured Thursday to have evidence – without having presented it – that Moscow was preparing a video of a fake Ukrainian attack, a pretext to invade Ukraine. Dmytro Kouleba said he had been informed in advance by Washington of the publication of this information, which “does not surprise” Kiev. “We have seen since 2014 many insidious actions by Russia, we have seen that they stop at nothing when they try to fake and blame Ukraine,” he said.
Russia denies
Russia, supported by China, for its part denies any hint of invasion, claiming that it only wants to guarantee its security. Moscow also announced joint “military maneuvers” with Belarus, where it massed several battalions north of Kiev and in the Brest region, not far from the Polish border.
The Kremlin then called for “not to take the word for it” the American accusations. “I recommend not to take anyone’s word on these issues, especially the US State Department,” said Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov when asked about the accusation.
Moscow considers that an easing of tensions around Ukraine will only be possible if NATO renounces its policy of enlargement and leaves the neighborhood of Russia. Demand rejected, however Europeans and Americans want to continue the dialogue with Moscow on its concerns.