“All planning explodes at the first shot”. On the Ukrainian battlefield, the adage is losing followers every week. Starting in the ranks of Ukrainian soldiers. As the conflict with its Russian neighbor progresses, Ukraine is increasingly relying on combat planning and simulation tools to anticipate the advance of the war. And among these forecasting tools, one of them seems to be favored by the General Staff of the yellow and blue army: “wargames”.
Those called “Kriegsspiel” in the 19th century allow armies to simulate, in the form of a game, operations against an adversary capable of reacting. Used by the General Staffs, these fictions aim to examine future military plans. On computer or on map, these “games” make it possible to reduce the part of unpredictability in the fights to come. “The principle is to simulate modes of action, to inject contingencies into them, possible scenarios that could arise on the battlefield”, deciphers General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the Nations. united, questioned by The Express. “This notably makes it possible to correct strategies,” he adds.
Change of direction
Ukrainians experienced this this summer. The double offensive on Kherson on August 29 and Kharkiv on September 6 was largely inspired by their “wargame”. The American Daily New York Times revealed at the beginning of March that the strategy of the General Staff had been redesigned in the light of the simulations carried out jointly with the Americans. At the beginning of the summer, the idea of the thinking heads of kyiv was rather to concentrate the efforts and the manpower on Kherson, capital of the Oblast of the same name.
Based on the strengths and weaknesses revealed by the scenario, the leaders changed gear: Ukraine bet on disorganizing the enemy. New mode of operation: an attack in the north, in Kharkiv, very quickly after the first in Kherson. The Ukrainians gained a significant strategic advantage by being able to read the vulnerabilities that emerged from “wargames”.
Round trips to Germany
It is one of the main strengths of the Ukrainian army compared to its adversary, underlines Dominique Trinquand. “The Ukrainians are trained and experienced in the use of wargames when the Russians pay little attention to it”, supports the specialist. However, this tool is particularly useful for understanding the complexity of the military balance of power. Thanks to the digitization of the battlefield, computers are proving to be particularly precise.
It enters the databases: the kilometers to be covered, the rate of fuel in reserve, the number of weapons available and the machine can anticipate routs or counter-attacks from the adversary. “The machine will, for example, take into consideration the advance times according to the armaments of each camp. The Leopard tanks delivered by Germany to Ukraine advance differently than the Soviet T-62 units”, supports the former top -grade. Depending on the weather conditions and the positions of each side, new strategies emerge.
These tools are proving essential for the Ukrainians when most of their equipment comes from arms shipments from the Western world and not from the country’s reserves. His staff favors the automaton rather than the imperfect knowledge of the equipment he has at his disposal. In this sense, his round trips between the Wiesbaden base in Germany, where the simulations under the American aegis take place, and the theater of the conflict are frequent. “The Americans are very advanced in this area, the Ukrainian forces are taking advantage of the expertise of the United States”, observes Dominique Trinquand. The Germans and the British are also fond of this approach to war. Less the French, closer to the Russian doctrine.
Preparing soldiers to react
In the eyes of the Russian authorities, it is better to set up schemes than simulations. The latter, based on a multitude of information, confuse the minds of the soldiers in their eyes. Following a plan allows you to stick to it and avoid wavering and taking initiatives in the field. But the example of the battle of Kherson showed the loss of agility of such a plan. Conversely, the Ukrainian doctrine aims rather to prepare its soldiers to react. By presenting them with all the alternatives that appeared on the simulator screen, the soldiers within their contingents are better prepared for surprise.
Building on their successful summer experience, the Ukrainians have been busy for several weeks to build a new counter-offensive. As detailed The world, some experts are talking about an attack in the south of the country, from Zaporijia towards Melitopol, with the aim of cutting the Russian front in two. Others lean towards maneuvers east of Lyman to regain control of Luhansk. Crossing the Dnieper River is also an option. The answer will certainly pass through the mill of the “wargame”. And the future of this war does not lie in a roll of the dice but in a long and tedious board game.