Russia has taken a step forward. Vladimir Putin recognized Monday evening the territories of Donbass, pro-Russian Ukrainian separatist regions, as independent. A new major step in the Russian-Ukrainian crisis followed on the heels of a directive sent to its troops to enter the separatist territories in eastern Ukraine.
The international community, from the UN to the European Union, via the United States or Turkey, unanimously condemns these provocations by the Kremlin, while Moscow had always denied wanting to attack Ukraine. Sanctions have already been announced by several states, like Germany, which announced that it was suspending the authorization of the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
From Russian military movements on the Ukrainian border in November, to the order given by Moscow to its troops to enter the separatist territories in the east of the country, a look back at the escalation of tensions around Ukraine.
November 10: fear of a Russian offensive
If the situation is still tense since 2014 and the civil war between pro-Russian separatists and pro-government Ukrainians, the tension goes up several notches in November when, on the 10th, Washington asks Russia for explanations on “unusual” troop movements on the Ukrainian border. “Our concern is that Russia is making the grave mistake of trying to replicate what it did in 2014, when it amassed its forces along the border and entered Ukrainian sovereign territory, while falsely claiming to have been provoked, says the head of the American diplomacy Antony Blinken. The strategy seen in the past is to invoke provocations to justify the execution of what they had planned from the beginning.
In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin accuses the West of delivering weapons to Kiev and conducting “provocative” military exercises in the region. On November 28, it was Ukraine’s turn to assert that Russia had deployed nearly 92,000 soldiers on its borders. While Moscow then accuses Ukraine of massing troops in the East, where a war opposes Kiev to separatists supported by Moscow.
December 7: Biden-Putin summit
A virtual summit between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin is then held on December 7. The American president “let it be known” to his counterpart that Russia would expose itself to “strong sanctions, among other economic ones” in the event of a military escalation in Ukraine.
For his part, Vladimir Putin denounces to Joe Biden the growing military potential of NATO on the borders of Russia and asks for “guarantees” on the non-expansion of the alliance towards the East. In this regard, Moscow is unveiling two draft treaties to ban Ukraine’s membership of NATO in particular and obtain the withdrawal of NATO forces from the countries of the former Soviet space.
December 24: NATO forces on alert
On December 18, despite discussions between the United States and Russia, Moscow deployed soldiers to its ally, Belarus. A “military rapprochement which would be a means of increasing pressure on Ukraine”, analysis at the time Release.
A vice that is tightening around Ukraine, which is receiving new aid in response from Washington. The Baltic countries are allowed to deliver American weapons to Kiev. Then on December 24, NATO announced the dispatch of ships and combat aircraft to reinforce its defenses in Eastern Europe. Washington places 8,500 soldiers on alert. Moscow then launched new maneuvers near Ukraine and in Crimea.
December 26: the “no” in Moscow
Two days later, the United States says no to Russia. Washington rejects Moscow’s key demands on NATO. But de-escalation through diplomatic channels still seems possible. Russian and Ukrainian emissaries meet French and German mediators in Paris to try to relaunch the peace process in Eastern Ukraine.
December 27: Beijing alongside Moscow
The next day, Moscow offers itself a sizeable ally: Beijing considers Moscow’s concerns for its security “reasonable”. A month later, Xi Jinping reportedly said “the two countries should take more common actions to better safeguard their security interests and strengthen collaboration and cooperation to have more say in global governance and international affairs”, according to the Chinese press quoted by The world.
While on January 3, the American president assures his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky that the United States and its allies “will respond vigorously” if Russia invades Ukraine, on February 2, a month later, Washington sends 3,000 additional soldiers in Eastern Europe. A few days earlier, the American ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, had accused Russia of wanting to deploy “by the beginning of February more than 30,000 soldiers” in Belarus.
February 7: Putin ready for “compromises”
But Moscow still shows a face of negotiation and says, on February 7, ready to “compromise” and to consider the proposals of French President Emmanuel Macron to defuse the crisis, while again accusing the West of threatening the Russia. The Russian head of state thus draws up his usual indictment of NATO and Ukraine, accused of threatening his country and peace on the European continent by refusing to put an end to their policies, according to him, anti-Russian.
However, on February 10, the Russian and Belarusian armies began military maneuvers in Belarus. “The exercises are taking place with the objective of preparing to stop and repel external aggression as part of a defensive operation,” the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement.
February 11: “real” risk of war
On February 11, the tension is so strong that Joe Biden advises his fellow citizens to leave Ukraine immediately, just like Canada. For its part, NATO insists on the “real risk of a new armed conflict” in Europe. Indeed, the discussions between Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Poutine held the day before gave “no result”, according to the Kremlin.
On the 14th, the United States decided to move its embassy from Kiev to Lviv (West). “It’s a big mistake – but it’s their decision – to move some embassies to western Ukraine, reacts the Ukrainian president. Ukraine is united and if something happens, it will be everywhere”.
February 15: withdrawal or reinforcement?
On February 15, the Kremlin announces the start of a withdrawal of Russian forces stationed near the borders of Ukraine, citing a “usual process” and denouncing Western “hysteria” over a supposed imminent invasion. “We have always said that after the completion of the exercises (…) the troops will return to their original garrisons. That’s what happens there, it’s the usual process,” the porter told reporters. -spokesman of the Russian Presidency, Dmitry Peskov.
But on the 16th, NATO and Washington say they see no sign of de-escalation. “On the contrary, it appears that Russia continues to strengthen its military presence (…) Russia can still invade Ukraine without warning, the capacities are in place” with more than 100,000 soldiers, said Jens Stoltenberg at the start a meeting with Alliance Defense Ministers in Brussels. “We don’t see any changes. We see a buildup of troops that hasn’t changed in recent weeks,” Volodymyr Zelensky also comments.
February 17: increased clashes in the east
On the 17th, exchanges of heavy weapons fire intensified along the front line between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces. Ukraine and Russia accuse each other of shelling between the Ukrainian military and pro-Russian separatists in which a school was hit. Antony Blinken denounces Moscow’s implementation of “provocations” to justify an attack while Western heads of state are still calling for a de-escalation of the conflict.
But Joe Biden’s United States then considers a possible Russian offensive “in the coming days”, while Moscow has deployed more than 150,000 soldiers, according to American intelligence. On the 18th, the separatists ordered the evacuation of civilians to Russia. According to them, the Ukrainian army was preparing an offensive to invade their two regions. For his part, the Russian president had ordered the payment of 10,000 rubles (about 114 euros) to each person evacuated from these areas.
February 19: imminent strike?
On the 19th, the Ukrainian army announced the death of two of its soldiers in a new outbreak of violence on the front line with pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposes a meeting with Putin, but at the same time asks Westerners to stop their policy of “appeasement” of Russia. At this time, Vladimir Putin supervises “strategic” exercises with the firing of “hypersonic” missiles. Russian troops are “getting ready to strike” insists Washington. France and Germany in turn are urging their nationals to leave Ukraine.
February 21: Putin recognizes the independence of the separatists
While the Elysée indicates that the Russian and American presidents have accepted its principle of a Putin-Biden summit and that the Kremlin judges this announcement “premature”, all hope of talks will collapse in the evening.
The Russian army claims to have killed five “saboteurs” from Ukraine on its territory and to have arrested a Ukrainian soldier, Kiev denies having sent these men. “We cannot prevent them from producing this false information (…) but we insist that we are not shooting at any civilian infrastructure or the Rostov region” in Russia, assures Pavlo Kovalchuk, adding that he ” there is no artillery fire on the Russian occupying forces.
But it takes no less for Vladimir Putin to cross the red line. In a televised address, the head of the Kremlin announces that he recognizes the independence of the pro-Russian separatist territories and orders his army to enter the separatist territories in eastern Ukraine.
February 22: conviction and first sanctions
A few hours later, during an emergency meeting, the UN and a majority of members of the Security Council condemn the Russian decisions. The United States announces that it will impose new sanctions against Russia.
The European Union (EU) will also decide on the first sanctions on Tuesday, announced the head of its diplomacy Josep Borrell, while Germany has already announced that it will suspend the authorization of the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. For its part, Russia assures that he is always “ready” for negotiations with the American Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is due to meet his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Geneva on Thursday.