Ukraine – Russia: five essential articles to understand the stakes of the crisis

War is knocking at the doors of Europe. After many weeks of negotiations, Vladimir Putin finally chose to defy the West. The Russian president recognized the independence of Donbass during a televised address on Monday evening, then ordered his troops to enter the separatist territories in eastern Ukraine, causing a emergency meeting of the security council to try to avoid a war with Kiev. “The next few hours and days will be critical. The risk of major conflict is real and must be avoided at all costs,” UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo said at the start of the meeting.

The UN and a majority of members of the Security Council, led by the United States, denounced Moscow’s decision. China has called on the actors of the crisis to “show restraint”, via its ambassador to the UN Zhang Jun. The Vienna-based Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe called on Moscow on Tuesday to “immediately rescind this decision”, saying in a statement that “this measure constitutes a violation of international law and the fundamental principles of OSCE”. As a sign of the new rise in tensions, American diplomats still in Ukraine have been moved to Poland for “security reasons”. Russia, however, assured on Tuesday that it was always “ready” for negotiations with the American Secretary of State Antony Blinken who is due to meet his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Geneva on Thursday.

No timetable has been communicated on the military deployment, the extent of which is also unknown. But, according to the West, Russia has some 150,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders. Two mutual aid agreements between Moscow and the secessionists, for a period of ten years, must be ratified by Parliament. They provide for the deployment of “Russian military units necessary to maintain peace in the region and to ensure lasting security for the parties”. Behind this diplomatic vocabulary, Westerners fear an invasion of Ukraine which could take different forms. L’Express has brought together five articles to try to understand the reasons that pushed Vladimir Putin to cross the Rubicon, but also the different aspects that a war could take in this part of the world.

• “Russians and Ukrainians are one people”: what Putin’s writings say about his aims

In a long historical essay signed by him and published last July on the Kremlin website, the Russian president explains the reasons which, according to him, justify the reunification of Ukraine with Russia. L’Express publishes this text entitled “On the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians” in order to better understand the Weltanschauungor worldview, of the Russian president. Here is its exclusive French translation.

• Report in Ukraine: these ex-combatants ready to return to the front against Putin

On Facebook, veteran Roman Nabozhniak chats with his former brothers in arms. “In the east, nothing new”, estimates for the moment this veteran of the war in Donbass about the situation on the border without knowing if the Russians are really preparing to invade his country. While waiting for diplomacy, embodied by the activism of Emmanuel Macron, to produce results or not, this fellow of 31 years mobilized from 2014 to 2016 against pro-Russian insurgents, chats with his friends in a tone that oscillates between serious and the joke. The topic of the moment? Find, in Kiev, a building high enough to unfurl a banner saying “Welcome to hell”, as the Chechens had done in Grozny to welcome Russian soldiers during the two wars in this region of the North Caucasus .

Our report dated February 8 with one of the 400,000 Ukrainian ex-combatants in the Donbass ready to return to the front against Putin.

• How has Russia been nibbling away at its neighbors for thirty years?

Vladimir Putin on Monday recognized the independence of the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, two territories in eastern Ukraine. “In the event of recognition, Russia would de facto withdraw from the Minsk agreements with all the consequences that will flow from it,” warned the head of Ukrainian diplomacy, Dmytro Kouleba, as early as last week. Signed in 2015, these agreements should eventually allow the return of these territories to Ukrainian rule, before the head of the Kremlin decides otherwise. History shows in any case that Moscow is not at its first attempt. Our card article is available here.

• How strong is the Russian army?

The possibility of an attack by the Russian army is growing day by day, as Vladimir Putin decided on Monday February 21 to recognize the independence of the pro-Russian separatist regions of eastern Ukraine. Professor at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies and at Sciences Po, Katarzyna Zysk takes stock of the forces involved and the possible scenarios.

An enlightening interview to read here.

• The five scenarios of a possible Russian invasion

Not since the war in Bosnia (1992-1995) and, before that, since the Berlin crisis (1958-1963), which culminated in the construction of the wall in the summer of 1961, has Europe been so close of an armed conflict. Since the Kremlin positioned more than 150,000 soldiers on the Ukrainian border, we have witnessed the mounting dangers. A question hangs over the intense diplomatic activity of the past few weeks: are we heading for a war? What form will it take?

To answer this, we’ve put the five most likely scenarios in infographics: from a full invasion to the overthrow of Zelensky.

For further :

– Eastern Europe, Africa… These areas of the world under Russian influence

– Ukraine-Russia: fifty years ago, the disturbing prophecies of Alexander Solzhenitsyn

– The L’Express dossier – How far will Putin go?

– Crisis in Ukraine: how the United States wants to punish Putin

– Between Russia and Ukraine, a city cut in two and nostalgic inhabitants