Over the weekend, Russia launched one of the largest armored offensives of the war in Ukraine.
A tank battalion reinforced with a motorized infantry company participated in the attack.
It struck near Avdijivka in Tonen’ke village against Ukrainian forces with at least 36 tanks and 12 assault tanks.
The attacking force belonged to the 6th Armored Regiment of the 90th Armored Division. The home garrison of the unit belonging to the Central Military District is in Chebarkul.
Pictures circulating on social media show a large number of destroyed tanks in a field.
Ukraine was able to repulse the attack, and Russian troops were unable to break through its front line.
Ukrainian forces, specifically the 25th Separate Landing Brigade, say they have destroyed a total of 12 main battle tanks and 8 assault tanks.
The financial magazine Forbes invited event as a “massacre”.
managed to confirm the authenticity of images and videos shared on social media with the help of geolocation.
A considerable number of wagons were destroyed in one battle
Based on footage shared by Ukraine it seems to have been a typical Russian attack, where the wagons have advanced in a line in the direction of a single track.
– The most densely destroyed wagons are only 10-20 meters away from each other. Since the weapon systems used by Ukraine are unknown, it is not possible to say whether a more dispersed grouping would have provided protection and whether the surrounding fields were generally passable with heavy wagons, ‘s military expert, major, evp. Marko Eklund.
In the database maintained by the Ukrainian authorities visible equipment losses of the Russian forces on a daily basis.
There now, Destroyed tanks are visible as a slight spike, but do not rise clearly higher than the equipment losses of other days.
– The statistics combine information from the entire military area. Now a considerable number of tanks were destroyed in one battle, points out Eklund, who himself is a tank-trained officer.
According to the Institute for the Study of War think tank it is Russia’s biggest tank attack in Ukraine since October 2023, and its failure is major news.
According to ISW, it shows the good defense capability of the Ukrainian forces, despite the fact that it has had to retreat in the direction of Avdijivka and has a severe shortage of ammunition.
A Finnish officer who participated in the training of Ukrainian soldiers has previously assessed in an interview with that Russia will use the capture of Avdijivka to its advantage to launch a major attack on eastern Ukraine.
Researcher: The attack is a sign that Russia is not satisfied with its current positions
Docent of Military Sciences Ilmari Käihkö to confirm information about the weekend attack and its repulse.
According to both Käihkö and Eklund, the footage of the destroyed tanks distributed by the Ukrainian armed forces on social media is genuine.
– There have not been such large individual attacks for a while, although the amount of losses is not much different from before, he tells news.
However, according to Käihkö, the Russian attack may be significant in terms of the overall situation of the war, as it may provide information on how Russia will act next after capturing Avdijivka.
– The big question has been how Russia will take advantage of Ukraine’s momentary weakness. The attack signals that Russia still wants to advance and take advantage of its superior position, he estimates.
Ukraine has a weak situation in terms of both crew and material, and according to Käihkö, that is an opportunity for Russia. He sees two scenarios for the future of the war.
Russia can either settle for these front positions and start fortifying and fighting a war of attrition, or it can try to get achievements on the battlefield, Käihkö estimates.
– This attack shows that Russia is not satisfied with the current situation and that it wants to conquer more territories, he says.
“Ukraine still has the ability to defend itself”
According to Käihkö, the attack, on the other hand, reminds us that ground attacks are expensive in relation to what they achieve.
– The attacks are difficult, expensive and the achievements are quite small. On the other hand, with them, Russia increases the pressure on Ukraine, he says.
Nothing is known about the losses of the Ukrainian side at this stage. Käihkö estimates that Ukraine defended itself with the help of drones, artillery and mines, without necessarily having its soldiers at the scene itself.
– Ukraine’s defense victory shows that the country still has the ability to defend itself against Russian attacks, although there has even been talk of the collapse of its frontline situation, he says.
According to Käihkö, the overall picture is that Russia has not succeeded in taking advantage of Avdijivka’s occupation. He is now thinking about the purpose of the attack, because Russia could be expected to save resources for a possible major attack.
– Although a major attack is hardly possible for Russia with the current resources, without launching a campaign, it should not waste its resources with such attacks, he estimated.