A rebel coalition led by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has captured a large part of Syria’s second largest city, Aleppo.
According to the Syrian regime, its forces have withdrawn tactically and plan to launch a counterattack.
Russia has already had time to carry out airstrikes against rebel groups, and Ukraine rejoices at the success of the rebels.
What is really happening in Syria?
compiled the answers to five key questions.
Who has attacked Aleppo?
The jihadist group HTS is an extremist Islamist group that broke away from Al-Qaeda in Syria and has controlled areas in the province of Idlib on the border with Turkey.
For example, the United States has classified the organization as terrorist.
The organization resembles the Taliban ruling Afghanistan in terms of its ideology and methods of operation, says a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Toni Alaranta.
– The group does not pursue any global jihad, but focuses on the local field of action. It has also tried to moderate its own public image and activities in Idlib in order to gain the approval of the citizens.
HTS has established governmental structures in the areas it controls, such as ministries and police forces, Alaranta says.
Group leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani has previously been a leader of ISIS and Al-Qaeda in Syria.
In addition to HTS, the rebels who took control of Aleppo also include democratic groups opposed to Assad’s dictatorship, Alaranta says.
Why was Aleppo captured just now?
According to Alaranta, the attack has probably been prepared for a long time.
HTS is a well-equipped group and has cooperated with Turkey.
– Turkey has clearly given the green light to the operation, says the researcher.
According to Alaranta, Turkey is probably trying to pressure the Syrian ruler with the operation Bashar al-Assad to the negotiation table. For example, Turkey wants to return Syrian refugees back to Syria.
The moment for the operation is favorable, because the attention of the supporters of the Assad regime is elsewhere.
The extremist organization Hezbollah has suffered losses in the Lebanon war against Israel, Russia is waging a war of aggression in Ukraine and even Iran has not been able to react to the situation, Alaranta reports.
What is the West’s position on the rebellion?
From the West’s point of view, it is positive that the Assad regime, supported by Iran and Russia, is suffering losses.
That’s why, for example, the former foreign minister of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba described the rebels’ progress as promising.
The Syrian rebels have also taken advantage of this, says Alaranta.
For example, videos have spread on social media where the rebels are allegedly wearing yellow wristbands. The color can be thought to refer to Ukrainian soldiers.
The authenticity of the videos has not been verified, but according to Alaranta, it is clear that the rebels are trying to create a positive image of themselves with Ukraine comparisons.
– They emphasize that Russia is a common enemy: Russia kills civilians in Ukraine and Syria in the same way.
Alaranta points out that the West’s position on the success of rebel groups is not one-sided, as the largest rebel group HTS is a terrorist organization in the eyes of the West.
For the US, the situation is also complicated by the fact that the democratic Kurdish forces it supports control part of Aleppo. The risk is that HTS forces will attack the Kurds.
What is Russia doing?
Russia is a long-time ally of Syria and the country’s dictator, Bashar al-Assad.
Russia’s armed support has been very important to the Assad regime during the 13-year civil war, says Alaranta.
Russia’s only military base in the Middle East is located in Syria, so from that point of view, Syria is also important to Russia.
Russia has already carried out airstrikes against the rebels and hit Aleppo for the first time since 2016.
If Russia were to engage in massive aerial bombardments, it would already significantly affect the activities of the rebel groups, Alaranta estimates.
However, the war in Ukraine binds Russia.
According to Alaranta, Russia could also be ready to cooperate with rebel groups if Assad’s armed forces are revealed to be weak.
– The HTS group already sent a press release in the direction of Russia, in which it stated that Russia should not depend on Assad, but can also cooperate with the HTS group.
What significance does the rebellion have for the Syrian civil war?
Alaranta considers the capture of Aleppo to be a very big turning point if the rebel groups manage to hold the city.
The countries of the region have already started to see Assad as the winner of the civil war and have begun to restore their relations with the Assad regime.
– If the Assad regime is in such bad shape militarily that it loses Aleppo, then it can start quite a chain reaction.
Potentially, the development could even lead to the fall of the Assad dictatorship, if you want to interpret the situation positively, Alaranta thinks.
However, he fears that the violence in Syria will increase again.
– Of course, that doesn’t sound good for the civilian population.