For 18 months, and for the first time in 12 years, Binyamin Netanyahu was no longer Prime Minister of Israel from June 2021 to December 2022. A short time like an eternity, so much has the world been turned upside down during this time. Barely two years ago, during the election campaign, the buildings of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem were covered with giant posters showing “Bibi” shaking hands with Vladimir Putin, with the slogan: “Netanyahu, it’s serious.” Since then, his great Russian friend has launched a merciless war against Ukraine, and Tel-Aviv must walk on a wire.
Phone calls to Russia, silence for Ukraine
As he returns to power at the start of 2023, all eyes are on Benyamin Netanyahu. In the campaign, he promised that the issue of arms deliveries to Ukraine would be on the table if he won the election. However, barely appointed Prime Minister, “Bibi” hastens to telephone Putin, neglecting the Ukrainians and worrying the Americans. “Among all the current Western leaders, Netanyahu has, by far, the most extensive personal relationship with Putin, underlines Yonatan Freeman, professor of international relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. That is why, with this new government in place , Westerners are waiting to know Israel’s position and look to Netanyahu to send messages to the Kremlin or find out what Putin has in mind.”
To the great displeasure of Westerners, Israel maintains its ambiguous position on the Ukrainian file: since the beginning of the war, Tel-Aviv has condemned the Russian invasion and sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine, but refuses to join the Western sanctions against Moscow and supply arms to kyiv. “On Ukraine and Russia, we are sure to do one thing, it is to speak less about it publicly”, announced Eli Cohen, the brand new Minister of Foreign Affairs, Monday, January 2. The next day, the head of Israeli diplomacy telephoned his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, which his predecessors had so far refused to do.
This phone call infuriated Ukrainian diplomacy, now convinced that the ultra-conservative Israeli government is about to switch to the pro-Russian camp. “This is not the case, assures an Israeli source. The new government discovers the Ukrainian file, it takes the time to talk to everyone, to determine the risks and the interests for Israel. Our position should remain that of support for Ukraine, while seeking to negotiate peace as soon as possible.”
Netanyahu, a bridge between the West and the Kremlin?
Building on his long relationship with Putin, Netanyahu dreams of mediating between kyiv and Moscow. Forced to join forces with the extreme right to return to power, the Prime Minister knows that Europe and the United States are watching his actions on the domestic scene very closely, and he hopes to prove himself indispensable in speaking to Russia, like Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “In Israel, we are very good at talking to different sides, and it is in our interest that this war ends as soon as possible and does not degenerate into an unconventional conflict, explains Professor Yonatan Freeman. behind the scenes and intensifying: mediation efforts, as well as Israeli aid to Ukraine, whether direct or indirect, including through private companies Recently, Kyiv has made huge strides in stopping drones Iranians arriving on its territory, but Israel knows these drones perfectly. It may not be a coincidence…”
In the war in Ukraine, Israel has no choice but to cultivate discretion. “Russia has an enormous power of nuisance as a neighbor, since its army is on our doorstep, in Syria, insists an Israeli source. There is what you say in front of the cameras and what you do behind: we continue to talk with Russia and negotiate with it, even if the Russians are angry that we support the West.” Regularly, the Russian army allows the Israeli army to strike Iranian positions in Syria, such as January 2 against Damascus airport, in order to repel the threat of a direct attack against the Jewish state. As always, in a potentially hostile region, Israel makes its territorial security a priority.
Especially since the Jewish state must manage other pressures from Moscow… Last summer, the Kremlin launched the closure of the Jewish Agency in Russia, an organization that helps the Jews of the country. At the end of December, the former chief rabbi of Moscow, in exile since last summer, called all the Jews of Russia to “leave the country while they still can”, fearing that the latter will be held responsible for Putin’s military failure. “In history, Israel has always had to calibrate its foreign policy according to the risks for Jews abroad, points out Yonatan Freeman. Israel is afraid that, by criticizing Russia more openly, the conditions of the Jewish community will deteriorate. deteriorate even more. The government must think of its citizens in Israel but also of the life of the Jews in Russia.”
From Netanyahu’s point of view, it seems urgent to cultivate ambiguity on this Ukrainian file, and to gain time. Normally, the unsinkable Prime Minister knows how to do it. Unless the 18 months spent away from power have made him lose his formidable political magic.