Germany, after a long period of consideration, has decided to deliver 14 Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also announced on Tuesday that Germany has also given permission to other countries to send its Leopard wagons.
Germany’s decision to send company tanks may sound small, but when the donations from other countries are taken into account, we are already talking about a total of 130–150 tanks.
For example, Poland, Finland and the Netherlands have announced their readiness to send Leopards to Ukraine.
Even that is still not the amount that Ukraine had hoped for, but it will affect the course of the war, estimates the former commander of the Armored Brigade and the former intelligence chief of the Defense Forces, major general evp. Pekka Toveri.
– With such a number of wagons and other promises on top of that, 70 tank howitzers and other things, with this amount we can already equip two or three brigades with fairly good equipment.
The former commander of the defense forces, general evp. Jarmo Lindberg on the other hand, about a hundred wagons, i.e. one armored brigade, is considered a significant amount.
– Prams must be able to play together. In order for the brigade to work together, compatible messaging and location information systems must be added to them.
Such is the importance of tanks in terms of war
An anti-tank weapon is important when you want to make counterattacks and especially when you have to take over areas captured from the enemy, Toveri estimates.
– Remote fire can destroy colonies with an accuracy of one meter, but you have to be able to take over the stations. On foot, it’s a tedious job, especially when Russia counterattacks with armor, Toveri says.
With armor, it is also possible to more effectively repel the much-talked about big Russian attack, if one comes.
Lindberg, on the other hand, estimates that tanks have gained more importance in the public eye than they have in terms of the overall battle.
– In a joint operation of different types of weapons, a fire-capable armored tip is important when breaking the opponents’ positions and going through, but it is only one piece in the game.
Comrade: At some point, fighters will also be given
Toveri considers the anti-tank gun to be a significant step in the expansion of Western countries’ arms aid. The first was the Himars rocket launcher systems. The third phase is already in sight.
– There will be more of this armored vehicle in the future. The British have them in stock, the Germans as well, and the Yankees have several thousand. Weapons of long-range influence will probably come next. And then the destroyers come, says Pekka Toveri.
Sending tanks to Ukraine’s aid will probably annoy Russia a lot, Toveri estimates.
– Yes, like a rat, it definitely eats from both ends. Official statements show disappointment. Not to mention the propaganda channels where they shout and threaten nuclear attacks. When nothing else can be done, one cries out in agony.
Sending more powerful weapons, such as battle tanks, has been discouraged in the past for fear of an escalation of the war.
What happens next
Jarmo Lindberg estimates that the risk of war expansion has not increased. The reason is that Russia is not successful enough in the war.
– I do not believe. When Russia can’t even handle Ukraine, they have no desire to escalate the war. In Russia, it is known that, for example, with the air force, it is only a matter of hours that they would cease to function if they went to war against NATO countries.
– This is not a battle between NATO and Russia. Everything will be done in stages, and no NATO people will go to Ukraine. [Venäjän presidentti Vladimir] Putin has himself pointed out that Russia is at war with the West, says Lindberg.
According to Tover, Russia’s rhetoric is getting tougher with the new arms aid from Western countries.
– There they threaten and try to influence the West, the worse their situation gets. I also don’t believe in the use of nuclear weapons, because Russia has been told so clearly by the United States and China that it cannot be used.
– This is a new heavy performance and its ability should not be greatly overestimated, Lindberg points out.
According to Lindberg’s estimate, the training of the tank crew and maintenance personnel will take from a few weeks to a few months. If there are, as has been shown so far, different tanks from four different countries, that also means four different stores and tools, as well as coordination of messaging systems.
The earliest Ukraine will be able to use tanks on the battlefield is next summer.
Both interviewees are candidates of the coalition in the spring parliamentary elections.
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You can read about the latest twists and turns of the war in this updated article.