Published: Less than 2 hours ago
Much is at stake as Ukraine launches a counter-offensive to retake the Kherson region in southern Ukraine.
A setback could jeopardize both morale and support from the West.
– You need to show a receipt that you have begun to liberate the country and turned the war around, says Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi.
The message from the Ukrainian military leadership came on Monday.
– Today we have launched offensive efforts in various directions, including in the Kherson region, says spokesperson Natalia Humenjuk.
The information is currently difficult to verify – but is in line with previous messages from the Ukrainian side.
– For a month now, they have had the stated ambition to liberate Kherson before the end of September, says Swedish lieutenant colonel Joakim Paasikivi.
According to information that abounds, Ukrainian forces have advanced in three places near the city of Kherson. On Monday evening, Ukrainian military states that four villages near the city have been liberated, write CNN.
The Russian Defense Ministry claims that Ukrainian operations, including near Kherson, have failed with heavy losses as a result, according to the Russian state-controlled news agency Ria Novosti.
Decisive for the support from the West
The new move represents an important moment in the war. The die is cast. For Ukraine, a military success in Kherson would have been very significant.
– You need to show proof that you have begun to liberate the country and turned the war from a defensive war – where the Russians have dictated the terms of how and where you fight – to the Ukrainians taking the initiative and forcing the Russians to react, says Paasikivi.
It is important on several levels, says Paasikivi. Partly for the hope and fighting spirit among the Ukrainians. Partly, Zelenskyy needs to show the outside world that the support to Ukraine with weapons and money brings results – both governments and citizens who are struggling with inflation and high energy prices.
A setback can have the opposite effect.
– There is a lot at stake for Ukraine, says Paasikivi.
Do you think that Ukraine will succeed in taking back Kherson?
– I think they have good conditions to succeed.
“Hit all important target types”
Ukrainian forces have been preparing their counteroffensive for the past month by weakening Russian defenses in the area with artillery fire.
– All important target types such as ammunition depots, staffs, air defenses and critical infrastructure have been hit, that is, the bridges to Kherson and deep into Crimea, says Paasikivi.
The bridges are important because the capital Kherson is located on the Dnieper River.
Another reason why Ukraine is acting now is that the military wants to avoid rain and debris later this fall.
– It doesn’t make it impossible to fight, but everything goes slower and becomes more difficult when there is thick mud, Paasikivi.
The Russian military will not give up without a fight. An as yet unanswered question is how the Russians will allocate their resources between the front in the east and the defense of their occupied territories in the south. Furthermore, a new force, a third Russian army corps of volunteers, is on its way into Ukraine.
Joakim Paasikivi believes that tanks from the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia will be deployed and change the Ukrainian warfare.
– Ukraine certainly has several armored units, or units of that size, which can now be deployed, says Paasikivi.