Seizing the city of Hersonis would be the biggest victory of the war for Ukraine, according to Ilmari Käihkö, Visiting Researcher of the Aleksanteri Institute.
17:44•Updated 17:47
From the Kherson region, social media is now flooded with footage of Ukrainian soldiers celebrating.
The mood is triumphant: the Ukrainian flag is already flying in the city of Kherson and the residents of the liberated villages are hugging Ukrainian soldiers.
– Yes, this came as a surprise to me. However, there was still the perception that there are battles there and it may take days or weeks before the Russians withdraw from there, Alexander Institute Visiting Researcher Ilmari Käihkö says.
Russia said this morning that it had completely withdrawn its forces to the west of the Dnieper River. During the day, it was reported that the Antonivsky bridge, important for the retreat, collapsed. The Russians are suspected of blowing up the bridge, which would prevent the retreat.
– Why would the Russians blow up the bridge if the troops are still on the other side? The cuckoo asks.
However, it is not yet known whether the withdrawal has been successful for Russia. Information is leaking from various sources, according to which the Russians would have remained on the opposite bank of the river and there would have been fierce battles at the crossing points.
According to Käihkö, the big question is also whether Russia will be able to move its fleet across the river. In the Kharkiv region, Ukraine took control of significant amounts of Russian military equipment.
The win is significant, but not necessarily a turning point
The capture of Kherson is one of Ukraine’s most important victories in the war. According to Käihkö, it can be interpreted as proof that Ukraine is capable of winning the war with sufficient Western support.
For Russia, the loss of Kherson is a humiliation. Only less than two months ago, Russia declared that it had annexed the Kherson region.
On the other hand, Russia has been planning to withdraw for a long time. If it has gone according to plan, with the least loss of men and equipment, the president Vladimir Putin could sell it as a success, according to Käihkö.
The Dnieper River, which is kilometers wide in places, forms a natural barrier, which will be very difficult for Ukraine to cross. Käihkö thinks that the front line could be locked in the river for months, even through the winter.
– Putin could say that he has stabilized the front line on it.
On the other hand, the blocking of the front line would also free up troops from Ukraine to go elsewhere. What is interesting is where Ukraine is headed next. Will it continue its offensive across the Denpr River, or will it head for Crimea or elsewhere in southern Ukraine, such as Mariupol?
However, the approaching autumn rains will slow down the movement in the following months. Käihkö also reminds that another opportunity like Kherson will not necessarily come to Ukraine.
Due to the wide river, Russia had difficulties in supplying its troops, and it was easy for Ukraine to disrupt the supply routes.
Ukraine’s progress in Kherson has also demanded a heavy price. The United States estimates that a total of 100,000 soldiers from both Ukraine and Russia would have been wounded or killed during the war. Especially in Kherson, Ukraine has suffered heavy losses.
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