The isolation of Crimea would be a significant change in the course of the war. However, the task is difficult, and the brigades forming the spearhead of the counterattack may not be as large as assumed.
Ukraine is forced to launch a counterattack in order to change the situation of the war, says Docent of Military Sciences, Visiting Researcher at the Alexander Institute Ilmari Käihkö Up in the morning.
According to Käihkö, expectations regarding the attack should be moderate.
– On the one hand, the Ukrainians have promised an attack, and on the other hand, they have insisted that it is not worth expecting too much, he says.
A significant change in terms of the war would be if Ukraine could advance to the sea. From there, the opportunity would open up for Ukraine to threaten and isolate the Crimean peninsula.
– But this is a difficult military task, Käihkö emphasizes.
A counterattack to the east would not be easy either. Russia has already been able to fortify areas there in 2014–15, says Käihkö.
The Ukrainian spearhead is smaller than usual
Ukraine needs soldiers to counterattack.
Leaked US Department of Defense documents have revealed that the spearhead of the spring counteroffensive in Ukraine consists of twelve brigades.
According to Käihko, the strength of Ukrainian brigades is normally 4,000–5,000 soldiers. Leaked documents suggest that the brigades are however smaller or less mechanized than mechanized brigades usually are.
– These are both bad news for Ukraine, says Käihkö.
If the brigades were, for example, 2,000 soldiers strong, the spearhead of the entire attack would only be about 25,000–30,000 soldiers, Käihkö estimates.
– A group of a few ten thousand new soldiers can do things, but will we get to Crimea and will we get to Crimea – not necessarily.
In addition, Käihkö underlines that there are many uncertainties related to the Ukraine issue – no one knows for sure what will happen. Only time will tell.
Russia benefits from the prolongation of the war
Over the course of the spring, Russia has shown that it doesn’t really have the conditions to advance. Russia has invested, according to Käihkö even wasted, its resources in Bahmut.
According to Käihkö, Russia certainly assumes that Ukraine will launch a counterattack and is saving its resources for that.
– The unfortunate fact in this war is that Ukraine is a smaller party and the war is fought there, so the losses and the price of the war will mainly fall to the Ukrainians.