Today, Friday, Ukraine hit the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. Ukraine is harassing Crimea and the Black Sea fleet almost every day now.
What is really happening on the peninsula?
Pekka Toveri (collective) estimates that the Ukrainians have weakened the air defense of the Russians in Crimea.
– Ukraine has done good intelligence work. It appears to have succeeded in destroying two valuable S-400 anti-aircraft systems in Crimea.
According to the comrade, there are now gaps in Russia’s air defense. Ukraine exploits these gaps by hitting important targets again and again.
The comrade estimates that Russia has a limited number of advanced anti-aircraft systems, and replacing the destroyed systems is not easy for it.
This forces Russia to make choices now regarding air defense.
– There, they will probably consider whether it is worth sending more anti-aircraft to Crimea to be destroyed, or whether they should be kept in the rear, where they can protect Russia’s strike capability from the mainland.
Russia may have to give up its naval base in Sevastopol
Recently, Ukraine has also continuously attacked Russian naval forces in the Black Sea.
The biggest single strike happened just over a week ago, when Ukrainian missiles hit a dry dock in Sevastopol. A Russian submarine was destroyed in the attack for the first time. According to Tover, the strike was a huge success for Ukraine.
– Ukraine won the double jackpot. It destroyed two important things with one blow. About twenty percent of Russia’s underwater strike force in the Black Sea went into it. It hurts, Toveri smiles.
In addition to the landing craft and submarine, the dry dock itself was destroyed in the attack. According to Tover, that is also a severe blow to the Russian navy, and weakens its ability to operate from Crimea.
According to Tover, continuous attacks on Russian targets may lead to Russia having to move its Black Sea fleet from Crimea.
– Ukraine does not need to make many more successful attacks, then the Russians will come to the conclusion that it is not worth hanging around in Sevastopol anymore.
So this would mean moving the Russian fleet from Sevastopol to the port of Novorossiysk, which is located more than three hundred kilometers away.
It would be a significant turning point in the war, since one of the reasons for invading Crimea in 2014 may have been precisely Russia’s fear that Ukraine would no longer allow the Russian navy to base itself in Sevastopol. The Russian navy operated in Sevastopol under a lease agreement between Ukraine and Russia, which was about to expire.
Moving the fleet to Novorossiysk would significantly change Russia’s position in the western Black Sea.
– A country without a navy forces the Russian Black Sea Fleet to withdraw from Crimea. That would be a huge humiliation, says Toveri.
According to the comrade, Russia is now trying to delay this scenario as long as possible and improve the defense of Sevastopol.
Equally important is incapacitating the air force in Crimea
According to the comrade, it is also important for the Ukrainians to weaken the ability of the Russian Air Force to operate in Crimea. It directly affects Ukraine’s ability to advance on the southern front.
– The Russian air force relies heavily on Crimea. If they are not able to operate from there, it will complicate air operations in the direction of Zaporizhia.
The comrade says that if Ukraine gets a breakthrough on the southern front, the Russian air force will be the biggest threat to it.
That is why it is important to destroy the Russian Air Force’s ability to operate from Crimea.
Ukraine received armor for the first time through the defense lines
Yesterday it was reported that the Ukrainians had gotten armored vehicles behind the Russian defense lines for the first time. According to the comrade, this means that the Ukrainians have been able to destroy enough Russian artillery and clear mines from their path.
– The last two months have been attacked only by infantry. Now a few machines from the first defense line have passed through. It does not mean that there is a big breakthrough happening here or that the Russian defense line is about to collapse.
According to Tover, the following weeks will be decisive. No one knows how many reserves Russia has left, nor how many strike-capable troops Ukraine has available.
– Russia is now throwing its last best reserves to stop the Ukrainians, says Toveri.
According to him, the biggest question at the moment is how well Russia’s next defense positions are manned. He thinks that the Russian men may be at the end.
The Ukrainians have a few weeks
Another factor that may promote Ukraine’s progress in the future is that, according to Tover, Russia may also run out of mines. Comrade believes that Ukraine will still strategically try to reach Tokmak in the coming weeks.
– If this is indeed the case, that there is weak occupation in depth and few mines, then the Ukrainians have an opportunity to attack quickly.
Ukraine’s success depends on many factors.
– How much Ukraine can get troops through, how much air defense they have and how good the logistics are, lists Toveri. A large mechanized attack requires a lot of material and maintenance.
All these are big question marks, says Toveri.
In addition to Russian troops and mines, Ukraine now also has another problem – time. According to the comrade, the Ukrainians only have two to three weeks to conquer larger areas. Then the weather conditions come against us, and the attack with armor could only continue when the ground freezes.
According to the comrade, however, Ukraine no longer wants to give the Russians the opportunity to dig deep into defense positions. That’s why Ukraine definitely wants to keep up the pressure.
– If I were a Ukrainian general, I would try to concentrate all the forces now and get behind the Russians and riot there. I would aim for mobile warfare, because the Russians are not terribly good at it.
If the Ukrainians manage to advance near Tokmak, they can significantly complicate Russia’s southern supply link.
– It gives Ukraine a good starting point for the next offensive phase, says Toveri.