Published: Less than 30 min ago
1 of 3 Photo: Claudio Bresciani / TT
That President Volodymyr Zelenskyy calls on civilians to leave Donetsk can be interpreted as Ukraine now giving up the region to some extent.
– You are not willing to risk civilian lives, says war scientist Oscar Jonsson.
The Ukrainian government has decided on the mandatory evacuation of civilians in the Donetsk region. Those who choose to stay must sign a formal refusal and from there are responsible for their own life.
– I think you can read this evacuation as to a certain extent giving up on the territory and not willing to risk civilian lives there anymore, says Oscar Jonsson, doctor of military science at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
Want to protect civilian lives
“We are not Russia,” Zelenskyy said in his address to the nation on Saturday, every life is important and Ukraine will do everything to protect civilians from “Russian terror.”
According to Jonsson, there are two humanitarian aspects that may underlie the decision to evacuate.
– Partly it is what Zelensky himself says that the more civilians who leave the area, the fewer the Russians can kill. It has been a clear part of the Russian strategy to level cities with population to the ground, he says and continues:
– But the infrastructure, i.e. water and electricity, is also so damaged that it is not possible to live there.
According to Ukrainian estimates, between 200,000 and 220,000 civilians remain in the Donetsk region, of which 50,000 are children.
Losing grip on Dontesk
The disadvantage of the evacuation is that Ukraine risks losing its grip on Donetsk, says Jonsson.
– The consequence, and the balance that becomes interesting in this, is that Ukraine’s grip on the region is weakened.
The fact that the civilian population of Kherson was present and opposed the occupation has been a problem for Russia. The civilian population has carried out both counterattacks and demonstrations, says Jonsson.
– If you empty the region of civilians, it is, within quotation marks, only the military forces that must be defeated for Russia to gain control of the region.
Focus on Kherson
Russia’s main military goal right now is to take control of the rest of the Donetsk region. But that loss would not be critical for Ukraine, says Jonsson.
Ukraine is now focusing on trying to regain the occupied Kherson region in the southern parts of the country.
– Ukraine has shifted focus to a possible counter-offensive in Kherson in the south instead.
Formal refusal
The Ukrainian civilians who choose not to leave the Donetsk region will be allowed to sign a formal refusal from mandatory evacuation, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshtyuk announced.
The signatory acknowledges that it understands the risks of remaining in the region and becomes personally responsible for its life.
The procedure is unusual, says Jonsson.
– I have not seen examples of that before, he says.
Jonsson’s view is that the civilians who stay do not do so primarily for political reasons. The reason is that you don’t want to leave your home.
– The fact that people do not want to leave house and home, I think, is a bigger part of the decision than the military conflicts