In the coming days, the United States may give Ukraine permission to use long-range missiles in its attacks on Russia.
Ukraine has been asking for the restrictions to be lifted for months. The US and British foreign ministers visited Kiev on Wednesday, but no decision has been made yet.
Next, the eyes are on the White House, where the British Prime Minister Keir Starmer meet the President of the United States Joe Biden today is friday.
– If the West, and especially the United States, gives Ukraine permission to use the most powerful donated weapons on targets beyond the Russian border, the political and also moral significance of the decision will be considerable, assesses the military expert, Major EVP. Marko Eklund To .
According to Eklund, with the decision, yet another “red line” declared by Russia or imagined by the West itself would be crossed.
– Until now, the Russian border has been like an invisible firewall behind which the Russian troops have been able to feel quite safe.
In practice, the restrictions apply to strikes deep into Russian soil with US ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles.
The ATACMS missiles have a range of about 300 kilometers. Storm Shadow missiles have a range of about 250 kilometers.
Biden said Tuesday that his administration is exploring the possibility of waiving the restrictions.
What would removing restrictions change?
ATACMS missiles would offer Ukraine the opportunity to strike Russian military airports, freight transport, warehouse buildings and, for example, the Kerch Strait bridge connecting the Crimean peninsula, which Russia seized from Ukraine, to Russia.
Ukrainian Kyiv Post newspaper according to ATACMS missiles, the fact that they are launched from the country also increases the benefit for Ukraine.
British and French Storm Shadow missiles are launched from specially equipped aircraft, which Ukraine does not have very many of.
Storm Shadow missiles have already been delivered to Ukraine, but so far it has only been allowed to use them within its own borders. So far, they have proven to be effective, for example in the attack on the Russian military base in Sevastopol, Crimea.
British Broadcasting Corporation According to the BBC Ukraine would probably want to use Storm Shadow missiles also to attack the air bases that Russia uses to carry out devastating cruise bomb attacks.
Most of Russia’s missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities are launched from airplanes far from the Ukrainian border.
– For example, when attacking air bases, Ukraine has succeeded in destroying mostly individual planes with its own weapons. In the future, for example, hundreds of cluster warheads of the ATACMS missiles given to Ukraine could destroy aircraft in an area of several hectares, Eklund estimates.
According to Eklund, the same threat would apply to unprotected crew centers and other so-called soft targets. The range of targets for cruise missiles would also increase, since the limiting factor would be the weapon’s range instead of the state border.
According to Ukraine, the restrictions force it to fight with one hand tied. The country’s leadership has also criticized the fact that Russian military targets are better protected than Ukrainian civilians due to restrictions.
– This decision certainly won’t solve the war, but it will correct the unfair arrangement of the battles and make the reality of the war even more visible to the citizens of Russia, who in the past could more easily turn a blind eye to it, says Eklund.
Russian air defense to the test
Also a military expert interviewed by the BBC By Justin Crump according to which the removal of restrictions on the use of long-range weapons would still be beneficial for Ukraine.
The Western countries’ procrastination for months has given Russia plenty of time to prepare. Russia has already had time to move its bombers, missiles and some of its military equipment beyond the range of the Storm Shadow missiles.
Nevertheless, lifting the restrictions would weaken Russia’s ability to defend itself against Ukrainian attacks, as the areas protected from attacks would increase significantly.
– It would make logistics, war management and providing air support to Russia much more difficult. Moving equipment to safety from missile strikes means that the duration and cost of each transport increases, says Crump.
Also a military scientist Matthew Saville believes that Ukraine would benefit from the removal of restrictions in two ways.
– First of all, it might introduce ATACMS missiles to Ukraine as well. In addition, Russia would have to think very carefully about where to place its precious anti-aircraft batteries.
According to Saville, this could in turn weaken Russia’s ability to counter Ukrainian drones. However, like Eklund, he does not believe that missiles alone are enough to turn the tide of the war.
According to the Kremlin, the decision has already been made
British Prime Minister according to the office Starmer and Biden, who are traveling to Washington, are supposed to have in-depth strategic discussions that would not be possible during ordinary telephone conversations.
The topics of discussion are Western support for Ukraine and de-escalation of the tense situation in the Middle East.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov according to Biden’s speeches have been interpreted in Russia as if the United States had already made a decision to remove the restrictions.
Peskov said on Wednesday that Russia intends to respond “in a manner appropriate to the situation” if the United States allows Ukraine to strike deep into Russian soil with ATACMS missiles.