As of August 23, the waters around Russia’s ports in the Black Sea are a new risk area for war, Ukraine says. Something that may make countries that still buy Russian oil rethink, reports Politico.
– You still have Greek and Turkish tankers operating around that zone, says Byron McKinney, head of S&P Global Market Intelligence to the newspaper.
The background is that Russia chose not to extend the grain agreement, and has repeatedly attacked Ukrainian ports.
– Everything that Russia ships back and forth on the Black Sea is a legitimate military target, says Oleg Ustenko, economic advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to Politico.
This could jeopardize Russia’s main export route for oil, which is also key to ensuring the Kremlin receives enough revenue to sustain the war against Ukraine, the newspaper writes.
– Many ships simply do not go to the area. Insurance is largely non-existent. Where there are insurance rates, they are very high and it will only increase, says Byron McKinney.
May make other countries rethink
The threat from Ukraine to target Russian ports could also put a damper on countries that still import Russian oil.
The G7 countries and the EU agreed late last year to set a price cap on exported Russian oil at $60 a barrel, on top of the sanctions already in place.
That the Black Sea will become an even more dangerous place may give traders who still buy Russian oil food for thought.
– You still have Greek and Turkish tankers operating around this zone, working with Russian oil within the price cap constraints, says Byron McKinney.
Increases the risk of NATO being withdrawn
The increased tensions on the Black Sea may also increase the risk of NATO being drawn into the war, writes the New York Times.
Among other things, because NATO regularly monitors both the territory of the NATO countries and international waters in the Black Sea. Although NATO is careful not to cross the war zone in the Black Sea, it increases the risk of an accidental incident.
– The Black Sea is now a conflict zone – a war zone that is as relevant to NATO as western Ukraine, says Ivo Daalder, former US ambassador to NATO, to the New York Times.