As if Belarus’ economic dependence on its Slavic big brother weren’t enough, Alexander Lukashenko owes a personal debt to Vladimir Putin. Threatened with being overthrown by a large-scale popular movement after the rigged presidential elections of August 2020, the man who has been in power since 1994 has been able to count on the unfailing support of the Kremlin, ready to send his troops if the situation demanded. The dictator eventually pulled through on his own, but at the cost of such a weakening that Russian support became vital to him. “Alexander Lukashenko knows that his people no longer want him and that the only one able to help him hold on in the future is Putin”, explains to L’Express Galia Ackerman, specialist in post-Soviet Russia.
In the difficult war that Russia is waging in Ukraine, and with the progressive depletion of its troops and resources, the possibility of seeing Belarus fight alongside Russia is a serious possibility. “To prepare for the war as well as possible, Vladimir Putin placed his troops in Belarus, near the border with Ukraine, in order to be able to attack it from the North”, notes the founder of the Desk Russia site. On Saturday, the Ukrainian authorities also denounced missile strikes from Belarus that hit the border region of Cherniguiv, northeast of kyiv.
So in addition to serving as a strategic rear base, why wouldn’t Belarus also participate in the military effort? By positioning itself, for example, near the Suwalki corridor, a 35 kilometer strip of land separating Poland and Lithuania constituting the only land link between the Baltic countries and the other non-Baltic members of NATO. “Lukashenko has not yet done everything Putin asked of him, but there are things he will not be able to refuse”, underlines Galia Ackerman.
As a sign of obligatory cooperation, Belarus amended its Constitution last February, abandoning its principle of a “non-nuclear zone”, with the idea of being able to host Russian nuclear weapons on its soil. This could be the case within a few months, as Vladimir Putin announced on Saturday June 26, with the transfer of Iskander-M tactical missile systems capable of carrying nuclear charges. A modernization of Belarusian aviation is also planned for this purpose.
Lukashenko fears a popular uprising in the event of intervention
Dependent on Russia for 55% of its imports and 48% of its exports, Belarus looks like a vassalized country. “Since the rigged elections of 2020, the European Union has imposed trade sanctions against Belarus, which makes it even more dependent on Moscow”, explains Galia Ackerman. In particular, it must repay many loans contracted with Russian banks.
However, Lukashenko and the circles of power in Minsk have not yet resolved to participate in the war on the side of Russia. “An intervention would risk reigniting the popular uprising against the president, especially since there is a large movement of partisans inside the country who are committing acts of sabotage so that Russian armaments cannot be transferred from Belarus”, explains the historian, who also mentions the existence of a national battalion integrated into the Ukrainian army.
While being under the control of the Kremlin, Lukashenko tries not to go too far, at the risk of not being able to go back. He will delay as much as possible the sending of his army to Ukraine, which, moreover, seems quite limited. “We don’t have a lot of information on the armaments that Belarus has, but the bulk is certainly made up of old military equipment dating from the Soviet era,” said Galia Ackerman. No doubt Lukashenko preferred the time of joint military parades with his powerful neighbor, when it was just a question of flexing his little muscles and playing war. For fake.