According to Ukraine expert Emil Kastehelme, the most important thing for Ukraine at the moment is to be able to repel Russia’s summer attack.
The armed aid promised by the United States and other Western countries has already begun to be seen in the war in Ukraine, estimates an expert who followed the war Emil Kastehelmi.
The picture of the war has changed the most when Ukraine has been able to increase long-range strikes deep behind the front. Ukraine is now able to use the powerful US ATACMS missiles. In addition, Ukraine seems to have received a supplement to its stockpile of long-range HIMARS rockets, Kastehelmi guesses.
A big help in the attacks carried out by Ukraine is its large and rapidly developing drone production.
After a long debate, the US Congress agreed in April on more than 60 billion dollars worth of arms aid to Ukraine.
However, Ukraine needs artillery 155 millimeter grenades the most. The role of artillery has proven to be very large in frontal battles, and Russia’s artillery superiority has increased during the spring, when Ukraine’s ammunition stocks have dwindled.
Along with the United States, for example, the government of the Czech Republic has promised Ukraine large quantities of grenades. Some of them have apparently arrived.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi made a hopeful statement last week that the grenade shortage had eased. For the first time since the start of the war, no Ukrainian brigade has reported a shortage of grenades, Zelenskyi told reporters on May 16, reported Kyiv Independent magazine.
Kastehelmi does not understand Zelenskyi’s statement about the easing of the artillery ammunition shortage.
– Everyone I have talked to about this when I visited the front in Ukraine, but also in Finland, has stated that the main problem is the lack of artillery ammunition, he wonders.
Help coming soon
According to Kastehelmi’s information, for example, most of the ammunition promised by the Czech Republic is coming to Ukraine in June-July. This is a significant change.
– Yes, it inevitably makes the defensive battle easier when the artillery is able to influence the advancing enemy.
According to Kastehelmi, Russia has used, for example, “infantry-intensive” tactics in the last few days’ operation in the direction of Kharkiv, i.e. the attacking troops hardly use the most heavily armored vehicles. Such an attack can be effectively countered with artillery.
However, Kastehelmi reminds us that the shortage of grenades is slowly easing anyway. The need is huge and the front is very long.
Russia’s advance under control
During the spring, Russia has launched several attacks that seemed dangerous.
In the village of Otsheretynen, Russia created a threatening offensive wedge, but Ukraine was able to stop the advance. In the direction of Kharkiv, Ukraine has retreated a few kilometers, but the Russian attack seems to be under control. A Russian attack has been expected in the city of Chasiv Yar, but nothing dramatic has happened there either.
According to Kastehelmi, it is difficult to say how much of Ukraine’s successful defense struggle is a result of the support package and how much is its own ability.
In any case, Ukraine is getting the kind of help it needs.
– The material that Ukraine is getting is really essential, especially from the point of view of the defense battle, and on the other hand, also in such a way that we can have an impact even deeper, Kastehelmi says.
The United States also supplies, among other things, Bradley fighting vehicles, which the Ukrainians have considered to be effective weapons.
However, the support is not enough for Ukraine to establish new mechanized brigades, with which it itself could take offensive actions, Kastehelmi reminds.
According to him, the most important thing is that during the summer, Ukraine is able to wear down Russia’s forces. Ukraine’s number one goal now is to make Russia’s manpower fade and break its summer offensive.