Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have been interrupted by a lack of confidence, among other things. Final reconciliation will only be of interest when there is no more to win on the battlefield.
A frozen conflict like Korea could emerge in Europe if Russia and Ukraine do not find an agreement at the negotiating table. In that case, the fighting may come to a halt, but the terms of the final peace remain unclear.
– A North Korean-South Korean-type situation in which warfare is stopped but nothing is agreed. This may be in the back of Russia in the face of the Cold War. The big question is how much will be frozen and how much a ceasefire will start genuine political negotiations, says CMI’s program director Ville Brummer.
“Even if there are some gains in the negotiations, such as the exchange of prisoners, humanitarian corridors, a ceasefire and even some kind of peace agreement, there is always a risk of committing to their implementation,” says a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute. Tyyne Karjalainen.
Brummer and Karjalainen comment on the situation in Ukraine in interviews with in the morning and on Radio One in the morning. Both see the stalemate between Ukraine and Russia affecting the stability of Europe as a whole.
– For example, if there is a dispute about borders or border management is not good, it has immediate effects. International crime is spreading from unstable regions to Europe, says Karjalainen.
According to Brummer, Europe must now consider how to work with Russia in the future.
– Russia’s basic idea that there are some kind of “buffer zones”, protection zones between the West and Russia. That is something that will not happen again in the future. That is something that needs to be renegotiated in Europe.
There are no preconditions for peace talks yet
At the turn of March-April, diplomats, led by Turkey, discussed peace between Russia and Ukraine. However, since the revelation of the civilian deaths in Bushan, the war has taken on new rounds, especially in eastern Ukraine. Talks of peace have been replaced by references to the threat of World War III.
According to experts, the negotiating table will not be seen as a meaningful option as long as profits can also be made on the battlefield: Russia is currently seeking profits from eastern Ukraine. Ukraine, for its part, is counting on its defense because of the unwavering support of the West.
The keys to some sort of solution may be found in Mariupol, which was also discussed at a meeting between UN Secretary-General António Guterres and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday.
– The evacuation of Mariupol’s civilians was in full swing. This could be a concrete issue that could be agreed upon. At its best, it could continue to promote negotiations.
– However, I am quite skeptical about how great achievements can be made. It is more a matter of creating trust in the process piece by piece, Karjalainen says.