U.S. backs Ukraine, moves away from end-of-war negotiations

US President Joe Biden’s sorrow is deepening as the Ukraine war plunges into a swamp of prolonged war. The war has recently turned into an international warfare that President Biden did not want as military aid from the European Union (EU) as well as the United States (EU) has been greatly expanded in recent years. In addition, due to disruptions in international supply chains caused by the Ukrainian war and increased consumer spending, US inflation has risen to 8.5%, the highest in 40 years. If inflation is not met by this summer, the Democrats are likely to lose the congressional midterm elections in November, which could put President Biden into trouble for the rest of his two years in office.

Since taking office in January of last year, President Biden has focused on dealing with COVID-19 and overcoming economic difficulties above all else, and focusing on restoring the alliance that had been broken during the Trump administration. However, his priorities changed dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine. Aid to Ukraine is a top priority.

So is the US Congress. Congress immediately accepted Biden’s request for military assistance in Ukraine, and passed amendments to the Arms Lending Act, the first in 81 years to allow expeditious lending of arms to Ukraine without complicated regulations. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Democrat, visited Ukraine in a blitz on April 30 with lawmakers from both Republicans and Democrats. He met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and pledged full support.

The majority of Americans are also unanimous in their support of Ukraine. According to a recent poll, more than 7 in 10 Americans fully support Ukraine’s aid. It is not too much of an exaggeration to say that the US government, Congress, and the people have come together to support Ukraine. It is because of this widespread public support that President Biden requested another $33 billion from Congress in late April, following $13.6 billion in military aid at the beginning of the war.

Thanks to the massive US military support, the Ukrainian army is doing well against the Russian army. At this rate, it is a situation in which the war can be fought without any hesitation for months or even years. The problem, however, is that the longer the war in Ukraine, the more distant the possibility of an end to the war. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, even predicted that the Ukrainian war would “continue for at least a few years.” Sean Monaghan, a defense expert and visiting researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank in Washington, DC, said in a recent issue of Foreign Policy magazine, “Putin sees the West as trying to destroy Russia. In addition to that, considering President Biden’s remarks that “Putin should not remain in power,” the US is likely to escalate the war in Ukraine and make it more difficult to negotiate an end to the war.”

The fact that the actual Ukrainian war has recently turned into a long-term war is not unrelated to the change of course of the United States. President Biden asked Congress for $33 billion in military and economic aid, saying that it is “to punish Russia for its aggression and to reduce the risk of future conflicts in which Russia has intervened.” Shortly after Biden’s remarks, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said specifically, “We want Russia to be weakened to the point where it can never again do something like the invasion of Ukraine.” This is an open statement that the US goal is to ‘weaken the Russian army’ rather than simply provide military support to Ukraine.

Political pressure ahead of midterm elections

Then Russia was furious. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov denounced “the United States is engaged in a proxy war with Russia,” and warned of the possibility of a nuclear war if the United States intervened. Putin also warned against the use of nuclear weapons, saying, “We have all the means to counter the direct Russian threat.”

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) officials led by the United States are welcoming the new policy of the United States, which has changed its course to ‘weakening the Russian military’. However, concerns are also raised in that this policy has crossed the ‘limit line’ that the US has kept until recently. This is because the United States opposed the establishment of a no-fly zone in Ukrainian airspace despite a strong request from Ukraine to avoid direct military conflict with Russia, and was reluctant to supply offensive weapons. However, as the civilian atrocities of the Russian army were revealed one after another and the resistance of the Ukrainian army was unexpectedly strong, the US took a sharp turn to an aggressive course. That is why the US has recently supplied Ukraine with offensive weapons, such as the Phoenix drone, the shoulder-mounted anti-tank missile Javelin, the surface-to-air missile Stinger, and the attack Mi17 helicopter.

Experts point out that negotiations on an end to the war between the two countries have become farther apart as the war prolongs while there is no clear way to end the war. It is the top priority of the US to seek a political solution with Putin to end the war. Georgetown University professor Charles Kupchen pointed out to Foreign Policy, “The US needs to move beyond supplying Ukraine with more anti-tank missiles such as the Javelin, and to hasten a political solution to end the war.” George Bibi, who served as the head of Russian analysis at the CIA during the Bush administration, said, “We need to find a way to directly communicate to Russia that the US is willing to ease sanctions in order to reach an end-of-war agreement. In that respect, the United States will be able to use military aid to Ukraine as a negotiating lever.”

Ukrainian President Zelensky, who was actively negotiating an end to the war until a month ago, seems to have gained courage from the full support of the United States and seems to be focusing on resistance rather than ending the war. Instead of accepting the Russia-requested ban on Ukraine’s accession to NATO, he was active in negotiating the end of the war, citing security guarantees from permanent members of the UN Security Council, including the United States. The reason he turned to a passive attitude is because of the full support of the United States and the recent massacre of Ukrainian civilians by the Russian military which angered the Ukrainian people and made them prefer resistance to war. However, with the number of war refugees exceeding 5.3 million and the human and material damage caused by the war increasing astronomically, the majority of Ukrainians still hope for a speedy end to the war.

The United States faces midterm elections for Congress this fall. The prolonged war in Ukraine is putting a political burden on President Biden ahead of the election. The Democrats have only 14 more seats than Republicans in the House, while the 100-member Senate is divided by 50. If the Democrats lose the election, both the House and Senate can vote for the Republicans.