Two years after the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine launched by Vladimir Putin, what are the main geopolitical changes caused by this war?
There are several changes, as we can now say that there is a before and after February 24, 2022. The most striking, of course, is the total break between the Russia of Vladimir Putin and Western countries. Quite logical in short, since basically the argument justifying Russian intervention in Ukraine is precisely the too strong rapprochement between this country and the West to the detriment of Russian interests. Result: kyiv is now part of the Western camp today, even if it is not an integral part in the literal sense of the term. Indeed, kyiv’s accession to NATO is still on hold, and for the European Union, we are at the beginnings of a candidacy, even if the step that Russia wanted to avoid has been taken. In this sense, we can speak of a strategic failure for Moscow.
Especially since the conflict had an effect contrary to that expected by the Kremlin – at least initially: a tightening of the Western camp, military aid and significant financing for Ukraine. Which today prove to be insufficient despite everything. While two years after the start of the war, opinions and the political class are questioning more or less depending on the country about the need to continue this support for kyiv.
A divide that continues to widen between the West and Russia
This strengthening of Western ties was accompanied by another notable change which was in the making, but which was accelerated by the conflict, a relative isolation of the West on the international scene. Clearly, the countries of the South and the major emerging countries, China, India, Brazil, South Africa, have oscillated depending on the case between cautious neutrality and more or less explicit support for Russia. Be careful, however: the attitude of certain States and leaders is also a matter of posture. When it comes to voting at the UN on the current conflict, a large majority of countries have chosen to condemn Moscow’s action.
As the conflict enters its third year, these major geopolitical changes are widening the divide between Russia and the West. With, in the middle, a Ukraine which is counting more than ever on the support of the Americans and Europeans to resist Russian pressure and, perhaps later, to repel this senseless and baseless aggression. This support is therefore decisive.
The Americans are currently hesitant to release crucial aid to kyiv for reasons of low politics. Those who block, the Trumpist Republicans who are wrong. As for the Europeans, they must continue and step up their support efforts. Otherwise, the coming months promise to be very difficult for Ukraine. It was Western aid that allowed kyiv to hold out for two years and the Russian army to fail in its initial objective, which was to invade the entire Ukraine.
The moment is decisive. Europeans and Americans have a historic responsibility in the face of Vladimir Putin’s hubris, in this fight which is also a fight for democratic and authoritarian values. A clash of wills. You have to hold on. For Ukraine. For Europe. For democracy. For our freedom.
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