Recep Tayyip Erdogan could hardly have dreamed of better: the polls announced him beaten, but here he is the big winner of the first round of the presidential election on May 14, with 49.4% of the vote. As a bonus, the president retains the privilege of a seemingly democratic victory. Which dictator would be forced to contest a second round? This will be the case of Erdogan on May 28, facing Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, leader of an opposition in the midst of a crisis of faith.
Next Sunday’s election promises to be painful for those who dreamed of bringing down the stay… “From the evening of the first round, Erdogan appeared on the balcony in front of a delirious crowd of thousands of supporters, in a perfectly choreographed event, thanking his supporters and mobilizing his base, underlines Sinan Ciddi, specialist in Turkey at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies A few minutes later, the opposition leaders appeared in an auditorium, in front of mainly journalists, without crowds, without supporters, with a defeatist message, almost submissive… Kiliçdaroglu was zero to give hope before the second round.”
“Erdogan is overflowing with energy”
Until then, the performance of the opposition was not ridiculous: for the first time in twenty years, Erdogan is forced to play a second round. But Kiliçdaroglu, like a majority of the opposition, believed in the polls which gave him the winner by several points. The fall hurts, especially since the Turkish president has secured a large majority in Parliament and will have a free hand as soon as he is re-elected.
As a result, the opposition leader chose to dismiss his campaign team in the between rounds and hand over the keys to Ekrem Imamoglu, the energetic mayor of Istanbul who shone before the first round. “If Kiliçdaroglu wants to win this second round, he should above all start by looking like a winner, continues Sinan Ciddi. It’s quite the opposite: he appears as a tired, desperate leader surrounded by party leaders who wonder what what could have happened to them. Opposite, Erdogan is bursting with energy and optimism.” At 74, Kiliçdaroglu will certainly have to hand over in the event of a defeat on Sunday and retire from politics, which does not help with serenity.
After disappointment comes panic. In a few days, the placid Kiliçdaroglu, who usually delivers peaceful messages from his kitchen, has taken on much more aggressive accents. Gone is the structured program on the economy or democratic progress. To rally the ultranationalist vote, the leader of the opposition now promises to expel all the refugees the day after his election, “because otherwise ten or twenty million more will arrive”. For the first time, he spoke of migrants as “potential criminals”, who could control and plunder Turkish cities in the future.
A change in tone that doesn’t fit well with the character and his campaign based on appeasement. “Kiliçdaroglu makes promises to the nationalists, but the Kurds are an essential part of his coalition, explains Howard Eissenstat, researcher at the Middle East Institute. He cannot attack them so he puts everything on the backs of Syrians and refugees, people who cannot vote and are an easy target.”
To win over a few nationalist voters, Kiliçdaroglu takes the risk of disgusting his most moderate supporters from going to the polls. A strategy all the more useless as the third candidate, the ultranationalist Sinan Ogan (5% in the first round), rallied to Erdogan in the interval between the two rounds. The outgoing president, now a quiet force, can continue his giant meetings and play the role of unifier. “The pro-Erdogan are relaxed, less aggressive, points out Howard Eissenstat. The president no longer has to face great danger as before the first round, he knows it and can play with it.”
After securing his hold on Parliament, Erdogan knows he still has to cross the finish line. And secure full powers for another five years. Minimum.