Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is meeting with the President of Turkey today in an attempt to remove the last obstacles to NATO membership.
But a Turkish announcement may be delayed further.
Late in the afternoon today, Kristersson (M) is expected to sit down with his counterpart in Vilnius, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The two have been invited by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
The meeting takes place the day before the leaders of the 31 NATO countries begin their two-day summit in the Lithuanian capital.
The Swedish government hopes to receive a positive message during these days that Turkey intends to ratify Sweden’s NATO membership.
But there are several things that are expected to have to fall into place before Turkey can give its go-ahead. In a telephone conversation with US President Joe Biden on Sunday, Erdogan repeated his criticism of Sweden.
“No use”
According to the Turkish presidential office, he is said to have said that “the positive steps Sweden has taken towards Turkey’s approval are of no use when the PKK continues to operate in Sweden”.
Sweden’s and Turkey’s foreign ministers met in Brussels on Thursday to finalize the work on the agreement the countries concluded a year ago. The aim of the agreement is for Turkey to approve Swedish NATO membership in exchange for Sweden intensifying the fight against terrorism and opening up arms exports to Turkey.
The Swedish government considers that the agreement has now been fulfilled. No new Turkish demands should have been brought forward during Thursday’s meeting. It is interpreted from the Swedish side as positive.
At the same time, Turkey wants to feel sure that Sweden really continues to intensify the fight against terrorist organizations, especially the Kurdish PKK, even after the Swedish membership has been approved.
Therefore, Monday’s meeting between Kristersson and Erdogan can be expected to be very much about how Turkey can trust Sweden to continue the fight against terrorism.
Koran burnings make it difficult
But that is probably not enough for Erdogan. One factor that can make Turkish ratification difficult is the recent Koran burnings, something that worries the Swedish government and makes the process difficult to navigate.
In addition, Erdogan is also expected to try to get things from other NATO countries in exchange for him letting Sweden into NATO. It has long been said that Turkey wants to buy new F16 fighter jets from the US and Biden and Erdogan will also meet in Vilnius. The talks will focus on “Ukraine’s position in NATO, Sweden’s NATO membership and the delivery of F16 planes”.
May be delayed
But there are also reports that Turkey may want defense equipment from, among others, Canada, Germany and Norway. Therefore, Erdogan may want to have individual meetings with several countries in Vilnius, before all the pieces of the puzzle can fall into place for a Turkish NATO message to Sweden. If there is a positive message for Sweden, it may therefore take until Tuesday or Wednesday.
Even the timing itself of the announcement can be significant. When Sweden, Turkey and Finland concluded their agreement at the NATO summit in Madrid last summer, there was reportedly some dissatisfaction from the Turkish side that the agreement was completed so quickly, because it could be interpreted as Turkey giving in too quickly. It would also be a reason for Erdogan to delay the announcement.