Turkey’s NATO decision may be delayed until October

It can be quick for Turkey to ratify Sweden’s NATO application, according to Turkey expert Paul Levin. But if Erdogan wins the election, it could also be delayed until October, when parliament reopens after a long summer break.

Sweden’s NATO application still lacks signatures from two parliaments – Hungary’s and Turkey’s.

Hungary is expected to ratify this spring. However, it is unclear when Turkey will do so.

Turkey plans for parliamentary and presidential elections in early summer. A date mentioned in the Turkish media is June 18, while President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said last week that the election may be brought forward to May.

– I think the probability is low that we will see a ratification before the summer, but I don’t think you can dismiss the possibility, says Paul Levin, head of the Institute for Turkish Studies at Stockholm University.

– Behind the curtains, the negotiations are still moving forward and the pressure from the rest of NATO on Turkey and Hungary to ratify is increasing.

Three months off

He points out that the parliamentary procedure in Turkey is complicated and after the election, as far as he knows, it takes about three weeks to get the parliament in place due to administrative circumstances.

Parliament then takes a summer break on 1 July and reopens on 1 October.

All of this can affect Sweden’s NATO application. Erdogan has also brought up the election himself in connection with commenting on a possible ratification of the accession protocol.

– If the election is held in June and Erdogan wins, then they will probably gather again in October. But if the opposition wins in June, then they can start legislation before the summer break. It can go quite quickly, says Paul Levin.

In a parliamentary election in May, there is about a month’s leeway, regardless of who wins, he reasons.

Extraordinary summons members

TT: Which scenario is most likely?

– It is impossible to say. Actually, you should always bet money on Erdogan, but I wouldn’t bet much money on him this time.

Levin mentions, among other things, the president’s unpopularity as a result of the battered economy in the country and the fact that he has now been in power for 20 years.

NATO is holding a summit in Lithuania on July 11-12. Parliament can be convened extra during the summer by order of the president or the speaker, but it is unlikely that Erdogan would do so, according to Levin.

– It depends entirely on the political will. A new government that wants to positively mark towards NATO, the Western alliance, could do something like that. Or if Hungary has ratified and Erdogan makes the assessment that for some reason he quickly wants to.

– It is not unthinkable but perhaps not very likely that it would have such a priority.

Hungarian yes in March

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has promised that Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO applications will be on the agenda during the parliament’s first session this year.

The parliament in Budapest is currently on winter break, but is expected to open at the end of February. If the application is processed according to regular procedures, the decision will only come after a couple of weeks of committee processing, i.e. some time into March.

Unlike Turkey, Hungary has always spoken positively about Sweden and Finland joining NATO. The fact that approval has taken so long is explained by the fact that Parliament has been busy getting new legislation in place – a requirement from the EU to pay out billions in aid that are currently frozen.

As you know, Turkey has not been as positive and at least one more trilateral meeting with Sweden and Finland is planned this spring, according to Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto. At the same time, the speakers of Sweden’s and Finland’s parliaments plan to go to Ankara in mid-January.

Facts

The agreement with Turkey

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