US security policy professor Stephen Flanagan believes that Turkey’s NATO statements are a political game before Turkey’s upcoming elections.
WASHINGTON Very unlikely and a really unpleasant option. This is how the professor of transatlantic security and Turkish security policy Stephen Flanagan describes the option that Finland would join the military alliance NATO without Sweden.
– The most important allied administrations would not want that to happen. They don’t want the membership plan to fall apart, says Flanagan, who teaches security policy at Georgetown University.
The Turkish leadership has indicated that it is ready to consider separating the ratification of Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO applications from each other, if NATO, Finland and Sweden present such a proposal.
Flanagan estimated that the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan the comments are still primarily related to the internal political game and the upcoming elections. In addition, Turkey is still trying to ensure the progress of the F16 deals past the obstacles that appeared in the Senate.
No Finland without Sweden
The United States has repeatedly expressed its support for the NATO membership of both Sweden and Finland. So far, the US leadership has not reacted to Erdogan’s comments that Turkey could ratify Finland’s membership but not Sweden’s.
According to Stephen Flanagan, however, the option is very unpleasant not only for the United States, but also for Germany and Britain. According to him, the joining of both countries to NATO offers the military alliance an excellent opportunity to plan the defense of the entire Baltic Sea region. If Sweden were to remain outside the military alliance, it would complicate planning.
– But if Erdogan really decided to completely prevent Sweden from joining NATO, it would still be advantageous for Finland to join regardless. I hope it doesn’t get carried away, says Flanagan.
Domestic political game and foreign political blackmail
Stephen Flanagan believes that Turkey’s teasing is above all about the upcoming elections and internal political games. According to Flanagan, Erdogan believes that nationalist rhetoric will help in the upcoming elections.
In addition, there are several issues between Turkey and the United States, the solution of which Turkey is trying to turn in the direction it likes, Flanagan reminds.
The current friction between Turkey and the United States is, among other things, the faltering F16 fighter jet sales and Turkey’s threats against Greece.
US President Joe Biden hopes Congress will approve the sale of modernized F16 fighter jets to Turkey. However, the arms deal, worth about 20 billion dollars, has met with stiff opposition in the Senate.
Among other things, the head of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee Bob Menendez has vowed to stop gun sales (you switch to another service) if Turkey does not improve its human rights record and stop threatening US regional allies. By this, Menendez refers to the threats that Turkey has shown to Greece.
Despite everything, Flanagan believes that ratification of Finland’s and Sweden’s membership before next summer’s NATO meeting is possible. According to him, if this does not happen, it would be a worrying failure for the military union.