Turkey’s autocracy in Erdoğan is cracking – an exceptionally challenging election ahead

Turkey will hold parliamentary and presidential elections next year, which may be the most challenging for years for an authoritarian president Recep Tayyip Erdoğanille and his AKP party.

The president’s popularity has been declining, especially because of the economic crisis that has plagued Turkey in recent years, as it is precisely the economy that has been one of the reasons for Erdogan’s popularity.

– He improved access to services, wages rose and the economy grew, describes Erdogan’s reign as BTI Director of the Turkish Middle East Policy Institute’s Turkey Research Program Soner Çağaptay.

– But he also has another side as a politician who is a congenital populist, Çağaptay adds.

Part of this populism is that Erdoğan mumbles and discourages his opponents and, indeed, all those Turks who do not vote for him. Turkey has been described as an almost cliché-divided society, and Erdoğan has both benefited and fueled these dividing lines.

Erdoğan, who became prime minister almost 20 years ago as a people and an economic reformer, rode with the image of an ordinary man in particular. At the same time, he was strongly populist from the beginning.

Throughout his reign, Erdoğan has appealed especially to the more religious-conservative population, which he felt oppressed and looked down upon by the elite, who emphasized the old secular republic of Turkey. In this respect, his message of an oppressive elite is very much in line with other European populist leaders – let it be that Erdoğan and those close to him now strongly represent Turkey’s new elite.

The president has also taken advantage of decades of controversy over the role of religion in Turkish public life during his reign. He also weakened the power of the country’s armed forces in the country’s domestic politics.

At the beginning of his reign, Erdoğan was also praised abroad. He improved the human rights situation in Turkey and accelerated Turkey’s EU membership process, which has been stalled for years.

Now human rights reforms are far behind.

Throughout the last decade, the president has adopted increasingly authoritarian approaches.

In the wake of Turkey’s 2016 military coup attempt in particular, numerous critics of the country’s administration, government officials, opposition representatives and journalists have been imprisoned, prosecuted or kicked out of their jobs. Some have been accused of, among other things, “supporting terrorism,” although human rights organizations, for example, have said the reason is rather critical of the president.

Despite opponents, Erdoğan has had its own strong supporters in Turkey.

In recent years, however, popularity among the people has waned as Erdoğan has failed to deal with the economic crisis that is shaking Turkey, which has also hit many traditional ACP voters. Inflation has been soaring in the country, and the value of the lira has plummeted. In many polls, the popularity of Erdogan and this ruling party has been at its lowest for years.

– Erdoğan’s model has only worked in conjunction with economic growth. The economy has been a very important part of Erdogan’s winning brand in the election. That is why I believe that in the forthcoming elections, he will rely on the right-wing parties in Turkey and increase the persecution, discouragement and mutilation of his opponents, Çağaptay says.

Indeed, Erdoğan’s AKP is in an alliance with two far-right parties, the MHP and the BBP.

One of the voters next year is a Turkish woman Özge Acıoğlu. He tells STT on the phone that Erdogan’s popularity is declining. Also in the Erdoğan party, the AKP has only a small majority in polls.

– Due to the opposition’s weak election promises, the AKP could win the election by as much as one percent.

– At the same time, the AKP is trying to secure its position by holding I browsed Demirtas such policies in prison, Acıoğlu adds, referring to the chairman of the HDP of the Kurdish-backed party, who has been imprisoned on terrorist charges.

Cracks in Erdoğan’s power were already visible in the 2019 local elections. Although Erdoğan’s AKP won the entire election, leadership in Turkey’s largest cities passed into the hands of the country’s opposition.

The most stinging loss to Erdoğan was the loss of Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city – and the president’s hometown – to the CHP. In Istanbul, the charismatic became the mayor Ekrem İmamoğluwhich in its campaign succeeded in polishing the image that CHP considered to be ossified and weak.

-Imamoğlu’s victory and rise to mayor was significant, because it was in Istanbul that Erdoğan built his political brand. It was a very significant victory psychologically, Çağaptay says.

Among other things, Erdoğan served as mayor of the city in the 1990s.

– If İmamoğlu ran against Erdoğan in next year’s election, it will be an interesting battle, Cagaptay says.

It is not known, however, whether İmamoğlu will go to challenge Erdoğan despite his popular popularity. In public, the director of CHP Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has quit (switch to another service) both İmamoğlu and the mayor of Ankara Mansur Yavaşin candidates, as they would leave the Istanbul and Ankara city administrations in the hands of the AKP.

But can power change in Turkey anymore with elections? President Erdoğan has power over both the media and the judiciary, and the campaigning cannot therefore be considered fair, Çağaptay says.

At the same time, however, the elections in Turkey have been relatively free, according to him, and the counting of votes has largely been fair.

– If the opposition manages to protect the counting and voting and ensure that it is fair, it may well win the election, he says.

The AKP, for example, questioned İmamoğlu’s victory in the 2019 Istanbul elections. In the end, however, the result had to be accepted.

However, Çağaptay estimates that Erdoğan’s election campaign will see more and more cultural wars, harsh grips and populism.

This is also linked to Turkey and its attitude towards Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership, which Turkey has opposed. This has been due in particular to Turkey’s support for the Kurdish organization PKK and the YPG in Syria.

At the same time, it should be noted that shielding opposition to Finland’s and Sweden’s membership of NATO as a mere domestic political game would be too simplistic, as the researcher Aaron Stein rate War on the Rocks –in a magazine article (you switch to another service).

According to Çağaptay, Turkey also has genuine concerns about the Kurdish guerrilla organization, the PKK, and its international policy.

However, the issue is also linked to the elections. Erdoğan is very likely to try to appeal to the right-wing conservative voters in Turkey in particular. This has been reflected, among other things, in a tougher attitude towards the Kurds – as is the case in Turkey canceled many Kurdish-language concerts (switch to another service) in recent years, Çağaptay says.

– He (Erdoğan) is very good at building a setup where what is seen as good for Turkey is also always good for Erdoğan, Çağaptay says.

– For example, Turkey’s long-standing security concerns about the PKK are now part of Erdoğan’s own agenda of building a nationalist and conservative electorate for himself.