Turkey, which puts pressure on Finland and Sweden, is known for its solo playing in foreign and security policy. NATO countries still want to keep a strategically important country in their camp.
Elina Rantalainen,
Anne Orjala
17.5. 19: 09 • Updated May 17 20:11
The biggest threshold issue is the position of the Kurds in Finland and Sweden. There is nothing new in itself, as Turkey has used its veto in NATO in the past to advance its case against the Kurds.
– When countries conduct foreign policy, what is perceived as the greatest threat is essential. From Turkey’s perspective, the biggest threat is the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), says senior researcher Toni Alaranta About the Foreign Policy Institute.
Turkey has used the “Kurdish card”, among other things, to slow down the implementation of NATO’s defense plan for the Baltic states and Poland a few years ago.
Turkey demanded more support from its NATO allies in the fight against the Syrian Kurdish YPG forces, which it considers to be terrorists.
The YPG cooperates with the PKK, which is classified as a terrorist organization worldwide, and Turkey demanded that the YPG be given the same rating. However, this demand has not been accepted: the YPG is still not on the EU or US terrorist list, but the Baltic-Polish defense plan has been implemented.
Turkey also opposed the Danish in 2009 Anders Fogh Rasmussen election as Secretary General of NATO.
Turkey was dissatisfied with the way Rasmussen, who had previously served as Prime Minister of Denmark, handled the uproar over the cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad in a Danish newspaper in 2006.
The biggest controversy is in Syria
According to researcher Alaranta, relations between Turkey and other NATO countries – and the United States in particular – are most affected by their differing interests in Syria.
– It is the biggest conflict that has been raging for 10 years. U.S. support for Kurdish forces fighting ISIS was a red cloak for Turkey.
– Turkey occupies a significant part of the Kurdish territories of Syria, which is why EU countries have imposed their own sanctions on Turkey.
Another big controversy between Turkey and the United States has been Turkey’s missile system trade with Russia.
The United States threatened its NATO ally with serious consequences if the country did not give up arms sales with Russia. Turkey did not give up trade. The United States imposed sanctions on Turkey in 2020. Prior to sanctions, Turkey was excluded from the U.S.-led F-35 fighter program.
– These are all starting to be big things, with big stakes starting in all countries, Alaranta says.
The United States has suspected that Russia would be able to collect data from NATO equipment such as F-35 fighter jets via missile system computers, for example.
Turkey was nervous about Austria
Turkey has also used its veto at the NATO table, for example, to advance its EU membership talks.
It required (go to another service) in 2017, the end of NATO cooperation with Austria, as Austria has been very negative about Turkey’s aspirations to join the EU. Austria is not a member of NATO, but is cooperating closely with it.
According to Toni Alaranta, the aftermath of the coup attempt is still rubbing between Turkey and the United States.
Erdoğan accuses coup of machining his former ally, US-based Muslim leader Fethullah Gülenia and its allies.
– Turkey has been demanding for years that Güle should be handed over to Turkey, but the United States will not agree to this without clear evidence. Members of the same movement also live in EU countries, and this is another group that Turkey is constantly presenting in its statements, in addition to the PKK.
The Finnish ambassador was threatened with departure
The coup attempt in 2016 is also linked to a diplomatic dispute last fall. President Erdoğan outraged when a group of ambassadors from various countries called for a well-known human rights activist Osman Kavalan release.
Kavala was imprisoned in Turkey for alleged links to a coup attempt.
Due to the controversy, Erdoğan threatened to expel the Finnish ambassador, among other things. However, the threat did not materialize in the end.
Tough pressure is problematic
Disputes between Turkey and other NATO countries have not really been resolved, but some balance has been maintained.
Alaranta does not believe that Finland and Sweden will not be promoted, despite Turkey’s tough demands. However, how it will happen is a question mark. Alaranta does not believe in strong pressure.
– Turkey tends to react to tough pressure by increasing its own hard stakes. That is when we are deeper in the cycle of the crisis.
According to Alaranta, the explosive world political situation gives Erdoğan trump cards that he will not hesitate to use. Because of the war in Ukraine, the United States and European countries want to keep Turkey on their side.
– The United States does not want to annoy Turkey, Europe does not want to annoy Turkey and Russia does not want to annoy Turkey. Erdoğan sees this as a playground and he takes full advantage of it and brings his own interests to the table.
Alaranta does not believe that Finland, or Sweden in particular, would bow to Turkey’s demands.
– I think this is going to be a twist. Finland’s or Sweden’s membership is unlikely, but this could be a long process.
Also used as sources: Reuters, BBC, The Guardian
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