According to the expert, Turkey’s importance to NATO has been forgotten: its geostrategic location is significant. Separating Turkey from the military alliance would also be impossible.
Hanna Visala,
Riikka Kajander
After a brisk start, Finland has stalled on its way to NATO. Turkey has a dispute with Sweden, and as a result, Finland’s application process is also stalled.
Finland and Sweden are important to NATO, but so is Turkey.
Finland’s NATO membership currently depends on Turkey and Hungary. All other countries have already ratified Finland’s membership. Finland is therefore technically a NATO member if Turkey and Hungary accept membership. After that, Finland itself still has to accept its membership.
We asked the director of the research college of the University of Helsinki and a foreign policy expert From Tuomas Forsberghow Turkey’s attitude affects its NATO status and Finland’s membership.
1. Can Turkey be expelled from NATO if it does not accept Finland and Sweden into the military alliance?
When Turkey has become a “disruptor” and a brake on the NATO discussion, Turkey’s important importance to NATO has been forgotten. Turkey is a geostrategically very important country for NATO, says Forsberg.
In practice, Turkey cannot be separated from the military alliance. If you want to get rid of Turkey, you have to build a new system on top of NATO, but this is not in sight, Forsberg states.
– Turkey is also a Muslim country. It is important for NATO to show that the military alliance is not against Muslims, says Forsberg.
– One important reason for NATO to keep Turkey as a member is that this prevents the possibility of a direct war between Turkey and Greece. There are still big disputes brewing in the background, states Forsberg.
2. Will Finland get into NATO at all if Turkey does not accept Sweden into the military alliance?
Finland can still afford to wait, but something should happen in one direction or another within six months, says Forsberg.
– In practice, there is no back limit for membership negotiations, but due to our own national interest, we have to come up with a solution in the summer.
Forsberg reminds that even though Finland is geographically Sweden’s buffer to the east, it is not a guarantee of security for Sweden.
– It has been thought that Sweden is protected. However, this is not true, because Sweden is also vulnerable in the Baltic Sea. Gotland is a good example of this. Sweden is Russia’s maritime neighbor, Forsberg reminds.
3. Can Turkey’s opinion on Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership change during the spring?
Finland’s government expects that after the presidential elections in Turkey, the country would accept Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership. According to Forsberg, of course, this cannot be guaranteed, especially for Sweden.
– Nothing will happen before the elections, because Erdogan is seeking benefits both in foreign and domestic politics. The ratification of Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership and the benefits derived from it are one of his trump cards in the spring elections, says Forsberg.
The elections will be held on May 14. After them, the situation changes, Forsberg states.
– If Turkey continues the same line, its position in foreign policy will begin to weaken. At the same time, the credibility of the country’s leader also suffers.
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