At a meeting of the Foreign Affairs Committee on Boxing Day, it suddenly came loose. It was approved to forward Sweden’s NATO application to a vote in Turkey’s parliament.
Now the former ambassador to Turkey, Michael Sahlin, believes that an approval in the parliament is a “pure transport route”.
– If today’s decision is part of a “higher will” as I said somewhat jokingly, then I see no obstacle to the approval becoming a pure transport route in the parliament. Then the question is whether this “higher will” gets all the members on board.
– Bringing this up, I think, means that it is the straight path to a parliamentary decision.
Unclear about Hungary
The vote on Sweden’s NATO membership in Turkey can take place on Friday 29 December at the earliest, says Sahlin. If Sweden’s application is approved, Hungary still remains.
Hungary has previously said that it should approve before Turkey, but there the development seems to be at a standstill.
– If Hungary’s parliament does not convene until February, the ratification will be delayed until then at least, says Sahlin.
Quick turnaround from last meeting
When the Sweden issue was discussed in Turkey’s foreign affairs committee in November, the result was that they did not think the issue was fully mature.
– Obviously, this has been able to go through despite this and there must then be a “higher will” for this to go through. And that, in turn, I see as something must have happened between the US and Turkey that made this possible, says Turkey expert Michael Sahlin to TV4 Nyheterna.
It has been discussed these days that the meeting between the President of the United States and the President of Turkey may have set the Swedish NATO application in motion. They discussed the F 16 plan, which Turkey has explicitly said it wants.
– It has been obvious and increasingly clear that there has been a kind of “chicken race” between the USA and Turkey regarding the deliveries of F 16 aircraft.
Worst case in February
TV4’s foreign affairs commentator Rolf Porseryd also believes that the committee’s go-ahead is based on the issue of the combat aircraft.
– Probably Erdogan has received further assurances from the US that the F-16 will be purchased, he says in TV4 Nyheterna.
Porseryd points out that Turkey has a history of hesitation on and off, so there is a risk that the vote on Sweden’s membership may be postponed.
– Now the parliament must take a position and it may take a few weeks, suggests the chairman of the foreign affairs committee. At worst, sometime in February.