The authoritarian Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seeks to raise Turkey’s international position by acting as a mediator in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, it was believed that the crisis would have a negative impact on Turkey. Turkey, in the midst of a serious economic crisis, has, among other things, economically important relations with both sides of the war. In addition, it belongs to the military alliance NATO.
However, the country has hosted negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, and the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has tried to get such a Russian colleague Vladimir Putin than the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky To Istanbul.
“I think Turkey has acted quite skilfully in creating a space where it has a special role to play in the negotiations,” says a visiting researcher at the Carnegie Europe research institute, says the director of the Turkish incubator Edam. Sinan Ülgen.
– Turkey was able to dig a diplomatic path for itself by being the only NATO country that has not imposed sanctions on Russia. At the same time, however, it has supplied Ukraine with armed aircraft and blocked straits from the warships leading to the Black Sea.
Turkish professor and commentator on international relations Ilhan Uzgel says that the position of Turkey and President Erdoğan has been enhanced by good relations with Ukraine and Russia. The president has also had repeated contact with Putin for some time.
Meetings have been held in Istanbul between representatives of Russia and Ukraine, and the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba met in Antalya in March.
According to Erdoğan’s office, this phone told Putin last week that Turkey wants to bring lasting peace to the region as soon as possible, using the momentum of the Istanbul talks.
A reminder of the importance of Turkey
Turkey also has its own binoculars in the Russia-Ukraine peace process. Professor Uzgel says Turkey and Erdoğan want to raise their profile internationally.
This could be facilitated by the conclusion of some kind of peace agreement in Turkey. Uzgel points out that many countries would like to get into a similar situation, and in France, for example, he has been re-elected president Emmanuel Macron has also been in contact with Putin and Zelensky.
– If Erdoğan were an international leader bringing peace to the great war, it would raise his international status, Uzgel says.
– The war has provided Erdoğan with an opportunity to build better relations with Biden, the EU and NATO.
Representative of the Finnish Middle East Institute Foundation, Turkish researcher Anu Leinonen believes that Turkey ‘s position in the negotiations has reminded it abroad of the country’ s geopolitical and geostrategic importance. Negotiations can improve Turkey’s reputation.
– This has reminded the United States and NATO of how important Turkey is, Leinonen says.
Turkey has already gone to war
Turkey, which is struggling with the economic crisis, is dependent on Russia for energy, tourism and food security, among other things. The country aims to reduce its dependence on imported energy: for example, the first nuclear power plant is under construction in Turkey. However, it is being built by the Russian Rosatom.
Tourists from Ukraine and Russia are important. There are hardly many Ukrainian tourists in Turkey this year, but according to Leinonen, last season was saved by tourists from Russia.
– Turkey could suffer really badly if it turns against Russia and Russia turns against Turkey. I don’t see how much Turkey could benefit from it if it did, as the West and NATO countries are pressuring to do, says Leinonen.
Leinonen says that according to figures from the Official Statistics Center of Turkey, annual inflation is over 61 percent, taking into account March. Statistics Finland has often been accused of distorting statistics, especially with regard to inflation and unemployment. So inflation can actually be much higher.
– Inflation in March was the highest in 20 years. In particular, fuel oil, petrol and food prices are rising.
Ülgen describes that there are elements of competition and cooperation in Russia-Turkey relations.
They are present in the same areas but have been supported by different parties. In Syria, Russia has supported Bashar al-Assadin administration, Turkey has wanted a change of administration. In the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, Russia has sided with Armenia and Turkey has supported Azerbaijan. The countries have also supported various parties in Libya. Turkey has also not recognized the annexation of the Crimean peninsula to Russia.
– There is little overlap between the goals of Turkey and Russia. However, in some cases, they have been able to find a method for resolving conflicts, Ülgen says.
What could Turkey ask Finland for in the NATO membership process?
Finland and Sweden are now carefully considering possible NATO membership. Turkey was one of the first countries to join NATO in 1952, only three years after the formation of the military alliance.
– First of all, Turkey is one of the major members of NATO. Turkey has always shaped and will continue to shape NATO decision-making. Of course, decisions are made unanimously, but some countries are in a way more equal than others. And Turkey is one of those countries. Finland should see Turkey’s role as such, Ülgen says, adding that the United States has a very special position.
Ülgen and Uzgel believe that Turkey would have nothing against Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Both experts see that Turkey can also hold bilateral negotiations with the countries in the accession process.
– The problem is that Turkey will certainly enter into negotiations. It’s going to ask for something in return for membership, Uzgel says.
– This does not mean that Turkey will block membership. It would point out in the process that, as NATO allies, Sweden and possibly Finland should act more in line with Turkey’s security expectations, Ülgen says.
This could be some kind of political support, for example. In the case of Sweden, Uzgel and Ülgen mention the PKK of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. Turkey sees that Sweden has not taken a satisfactory stance against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Syria.
Turkey sees the Kurdish forces belonging to the SDF as a branch of the PKK, which the country has classified as a terrorist organization. Kurdish forces operating in Syria have been a major ally of the United States in the fight against the terrorist organization Isis.
Ülgen thinks that Finland should also take into account NATO’s dividing lines before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He describes Russia as a threat in the Baltics and Northern Europe, while the Mediterranean countries have in the past focused on more threats such as the collapses further south or on the brink of collapse and radicalization.
– Of course, the war in Ukraine has changed the situation. However, Finland should be aware that when Turkey looks at the world, it is not just about Russia, Ülgen says.