Turkey became a life hole for Russia both in the economy and in tourism – the United States already warned about too close relations

In Turkish foreign policy and especially the president to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan there has been momentum and quick turns in personal diplomacy lately.

In Finland, NATO’s Madrid summit in June is remembered for the twist related to the membership of Finland and Sweden, in which Turkey was at the center. But at the same meeting, Turkey and other NATO members agreed to a new strategy that sees Russia as the most serious threat.

Shortly after the meeting, President Erdoğan met with the President of Russia Vladimir Putin no less than twice. The leaders agreed that the trade between Turkey and Russia will be boosted and economic cooperation will be developed in other ways.

Then Erdoğan went to convince the President of Ukraine to Volodymyr Zelenskyi, that Turkey stands by Ukraine. Erdogan has also reminded of Turkey’s policy that Russia’s occupation of Crimea is illegal.

The Turkish president is trying to maintain good relations with both Ukraine and Russia and balance between the West and Russia. The agreement on sea transport of Ukrainian grain to the world is a significant achievement. Along with the UN, Turkey played a big role in achieving the agreement.

– Russia and Turkey are dependent on each other. Turkey is now the only real bridge to the West for the Russians, and through Turkey it has also been possible to hold a dialogue with Ukraine, says a senior researcher Zaur Gasimov from the Department of Russian Studies at the University of Bonn.

Russian tourists are welcome in Turkey and credit cards linked to the Russian Mir payment system work. Trade between Turkey and Russia has started to grow rapidly after Russia attacked Ukraine in February and became the target of new sanctions.

– Some companies that withdrew from Russia now continue to trade through Turkey. There are also Western companies in the group, says a freelance analyst specializing in relations between Turkey and Russia Kerim Has from Moscow.

According to Hasi, Russian companies are establishing logistics centers in Turkey for freight transport.

Sanctions against Russia are imposed by the EU, the US and a few other countries, so they do not bind Turkey. Kerim Has says that Turkey knows how to circumvent sanctions and at one point Turkey even violated UN sanctions against Iran.

– I think that Erdoğan’s administration intends to follow the same type of policy by offering Russia an economic loophole to soften the impact of the sanctions. Turkey hopes for compensation, a kind of commission for its services.

President Erdoğan has to solve two big problems before next year’s elections.

The economy is suffering badly and inflation has risen by more than 150 percent, according to independent economists. Another problem is the Syrian refugees in the country, which many Turks think should already be sent back, especially when the economic crisis hits hard. The Russians can help with both problems.

President of Syria Bashar al-Assad owes a great debt of gratitude to Russia, whose military intervention helped save Assad. The refugee issue could perhaps be found with the help of Russia, Kerim Has thinks.

In the economic crisis, Russia is part of the solution, but money is needed from elsewhere, such as the prosperous Arab countries of the Persian Gulf. Countries can help by transferring money to companies operating in Turkey or by buying Turkish bonds. If foreign currency can be brought to Turkey, the economy can be temporarily stabilized – possibly over the course of the elections.

– Russia has transferred several billion dollars to Turkey, officially as part of the financing of the nuclear power plant being built on the Mediterranean coast. In the future, money can flow through other channels to Turkish banks or the central bank, says Kerim Has.

– I can’t imagine that any kind of sanctions would threaten Turkey in the near future. Turkey’s role in the grain agreement is important and Turkey is an important intermediary between Ukraine and Russia, says Zaur Gasimov from the University of Bonn.

According to Kerim Hasi, it seems that the Western countries are ready to watch Turkey’s actions through their fingers for the time being. The decisive factor is how extensive the cooperation with Russia grows.

According to Hasi, Turkey does not want to be further destabilized by, for example, sanctions, because the complete collapse of the economy would also be felt in Western countries, for example through the banks that have lent to Turkey.

In the foreign policy led by President Erdoğan and his inner circle, anything seems possible and things can change quickly. Relations with countries characterized as enemies can be quickly restored.

– Within a year, wild U-turns have been made in relations with Saudi Arabia, the Arab Emirates, Israel and, to some extent, Egypt, says Kerim Has.

However, no quick changes are expected in Turkish-Russian relations, as both countries benefit from the relations.

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