The referendum is being held exactly one year to the day Kaïs Saïed closed parliament and dissolved the government. His critics have described the move as a coup but it was hailed at the same time by Tunisians fed up with the country’s political elite and economic stagnation.
The new constitution would give the president all executive powers, while greatly reducing the influence of Tunisia’s judiciary and parliament. Critics warn that this could pave the way for a new dictatorship in Tunisia. The country rose up against the then autocrat Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011 and ignited the Arab Spring democracy protests. Tunisia is the only country that came out the other side of these uprisings as a democracy.
Kaïs Saïed, a former law professor, promised to reduce corruption in the country when he ran for election in 2019 and won with over 70 percent of the vote. Since last July, he has issued a series of decrees that have curtailed democracy in Tunisia. Among other things, he has dismissed the government and given himself the power to fire judges as he wants.
Saïed’s supporters believe the new constitution could end years of political deadlock. But most political parties, including the influential Islamist party Ennahdha, are boycotting today’s referendum because they do not want to legitimize it.
The results are expected to be in Saïed’s favor, as there is no lower limit for how large the turnout must be.
— The biggest uncertainty surrounding this election is the participation, and whether it will be low or very low, says Youssef Cherif, political analyst.