On Tuesday evening, the Polish government announced that helicopters from Belarus had violated Polish airspace.
The helicopters must have been practicing near the Polish border when they managed to get three kilometers into the airspace. The breach is also said to have occurred at “very low altitude”, and was therefore not detected by the Polish radar systems.
– It is quite unusual that you violate each other’s airspace in this particular direction, between Poland and Belarus, says Lieutenant Colonel Johan Huovinen.
He also describes it as “remarkable” that the two attack helicopters managed to get this far without being detected.
“A provocation”
Exactly why Belarus encroaches on Poland’s airspace is still unclear, but the fact that the atmosphere between Belarus and Poland has been tense since the refugee flow in 2021 is no secret.
– This must be seen as another provocation in the direction of trying to control Polish preparedness, says Johan Huovinen.
Since the Wagner Group made its way to Belarus after the armed uprising against the Russian military leadership, the tension between the countries has increased further. In recent weeks, the Wagner soldiers have been training alongside Lukashenko’s army – prompting Poland to move around 1,000 soldiers to the border area.
On Tuesday, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko came out and said that Poland should thank him for keeping the Wagner soldiers within the country’s borders.
“They shouldn’t blame me, they should say thank you,” he said then, reports The Jerusalem Post.
Taking to Wagner for provocation
But that Lukashenko would not have control over the Wagner Group is not true, Huovinen believes.
– Wagner is registered as a company in Belarus and then it is up to the Belarusian state to keep control of them, so this is not something that Lukashenko can get away with.
He believes that Wagner can be beneficial for Belarusian security policy.
– I don’t think we should see Wagner as an instrument to create anxiety. However, they can help provoke a little bit that will occupy the Polish border guard and the Polish forces, says the lieutenant colonel.
Johan Huovinen believes that we may see more similar provocations from Belarus against Poland, and also Lithuania.
– You must not forget that things can change very quickly, he says.