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full screen Democrat Kamala Harris gives an election speech in Erie, Pennsylvania – in front of a picture of her opponent, Republican Donald Trump. Picture from Monday. Photo: Jacquelyn Martin/AP/TT
Eighteen days before the fateful election in the United States, Donald Trump has overtaken his opponent Kamala Harris in almost all the decisive swing states.
The lead the Democrat had after the candidates’ only televised debate has been erased.
Is it because of Trump’s extreme rhetoric or the conspiracy theories about the White House’s disaster management after hurricanes Helene and Milton? Are voters worried about the prospect of a female commander?
Political analysts in the US have no clear explanation as to why the Democrats’ Kamala Harris has fallen noticeably in popularity in recent weeks. The vice president is campaigning hard in the crucial swing states and she has made a series of in-demand media appearances.
– Summer has turned into autumn, the signs of a tailwind for Harris have ended, states opinion expert Jeff Horwitt for the television channel NBC.
Nothing different?
His colleague Bill McInturff believes that the development is due to Harris not being able to demonstrate clear differences between her and President Joe Biden’s leadership. In an ABC interview last week, Harris said “she can’t think of anything in particular” she would have done differently from her boss.
– I have been involved in most important decisions, she said in a clip that has gone viral.
Later, Harris returned to the topic, saying that, unlike Biden, she plans to have a Republican in her cabinet.
Bill McInturff concludes that for many Americans the election is like one between two sitting presidents – and that many feel they were better off under Trump.
A country in decline
Add to that that Donald Trump is currently going hard on Harris with daily attacks mainly on her intelligence.
He has also spread exaggerated, in some cases false, information about violent immigrant groups in the US and threatened to deploy the military against left-wing groups. The rhetoric aligns with Trump’s description of the United States as a country in decline, a development he claims he alone can reverse.
The former president has now overtaken Harris in six of the seven key swing states. Harris only has the lead in Wisconsin, and that by 0.3 percentage points, which is within the margin of error. Even in the other swing states, it’s very even, but in Michigan, Arizona and North Carolina, Trump has an advantage of one percentage point or more, according to the Real Clear Politics average.
The tendency is also visible at the betting companies. According to the site Election Betting Odds, which compiles odds from six betting companies, Trump’s chances of winning on November 5 have risen to 56.6 percent. Harris’ chances have dropped to 42.7 percent.
FACTS Pollster states decide US elections
Democrats’ Kamala Harris currently has the support of 49.3 percent of Americans and Republican Donald Trump’s 47.7 percent, according to the political site Real Clear Politics’ compilation of current polls. However, the US’s complex electoral system, where voters vote for electors in each state, means that a candidate can win the election without having majority support.
The elector system means that the election is decided in a few so-called wave master states. This is how the candidates’ support looks in percentage in these.
The number of electors in the swing states is in parentheses, to win the presidential election requires the support of at least 270 electors.
Pennsylvania (19): Trump: 48.3; Harris: 48
Georgia (16): Trump: 48.7; Harris: 47.8
North Carolina (16): Trump: 48.7; Harris: 47.5
Michigan (15): Trump: 48.4; Harris: 47.4
Arizona (11): Trump: 48.8; Harris: 47.3
Wisconsin (10): Harris: 48.3; Trump: 48
Nevada (6): Trump: 47.7; Harris: 47.2
The presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 5.
Source: Real Clear Politics
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